Friday 11 December 2009

12/12 The Wikinvest Daily Angle

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An Alternative Read on Last Week's 'Bullish' Jobs Data
December 11, 2009 at 2:01 am

Today's Daily Angle comes from Wikinvest Wire member Michael Panzner of Financial Armageddon. You can read the full article on Michael's blog.

Economists and stock bulls cheered last week’s better-than-expected November employment report. But was the data as good as it seemed? Consider the following:

Temporary jobs

Could the nine-month rally in share prices and the positive spin pouring out of Wall Street and Washington have encouraged some owners and managers, who are seeing little direct evidence of a rebound in the economy, to acquire what might be described as a labor call option — that is, temporary staff (a key factor in the overall increase)?

Otherwise, temporary employees accounted for 52,400 of the hefty 86,000 jump in the professional and business services category. Might this reflect the fact that firms are temporarily taking on accountants, lawyers, and others who can help them further reduce costs (e.g., labor), restructure operations, and maybe even prepare for bankruptcy?

Long-term unemployed

Last week’s employment report revealed that the labor force participation rate dropped to 65%, it’s lowest level in more than two decades; the number of Americans who are unemployed over 26 weeks fell to a record 3.8% of the civilian workforce; and, the “underemployment” ratio improved only marginally, to 17.2%.

Could this set of statistics be interpreted as a sign that employers don’t see enough good opportunities to justify taking risks as far as hiring is concerned? In other words, are they are sticking with the safe option — the job market’s “known quantities” (e.g., those who are currently employed or who haven’t been out of work too long)?

Category trends

While much of the focus was on the overall number, the breakdown by category was less reassuring. Those areas of the economy that would naturally be associated with a sustainable rebound in activity, including manufacturing, trade,transportation and utilities, and construction, are still hemorrhaging jobs.

Moreover, recent developments suggest that two categories which did see respectable gains, education and health care, face major headwinds in the period ahead. With municipal budgets under growing strain, school budgets — and education-related hiring — have nowhere to go but down. And with all eyes now focused on the rising cost of health care, the pressure to reign in spending will only increase.

 

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12/12 DailyFinance

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Wendy's fast food chain says 'sayonara' to Japan
December 11, 2009 at 5:00 pm

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Wendy's (WEN) will close all of its 71 restaurants in Japan by the end of the month, the chain's Japanese franchisee, Zensho Co. Ltd., announced on Friday. The news arrived just a matter of days after rival McDonald's (MCD) reported that sales in Japan were so poor in November that they offset strong results in Australia and helped weigh the entire Asian region's performance down during the month.

The unexpected Wendy's closings come despite the franchisee's profitable fiscal year, which ended in March 2009, and sales of 6.2 billion yen ($70 million) at its Wendy's restaurants. Zensho, which bought the country's franchises from supermarket chain Daiei in 2002, merely said it was making the move because it needed to focus on its other interests, chiefly the Sukiya beef bowl chain.

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Wendy's fast food chain says 'sayonara' to Japan originally appeared on DailyFinance on Fri, 11 Dec 2009 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Stronger retail sales, consumer sentiment boost stocks
December 11, 2009 at 4:45 pm

Stocks mostly rose as a report on retail sales indicates consumers are picking up their spending.

The Commerce Department says Friday that retail sales rose 1.3 percent in November. That's more than double the increase analysts had been expecting.

More good news came as the preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased more than expected for December.

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Shares of GameStop, near a two-year low, look like a buy
December 11, 2009 at 4:40 pm

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Walmart's (WMT) announcement earlier this month that it would slash prices on video games by up to 20% sent a shiver through the video-game industry. Shares of Grapevine, Texas-based GameStop (GME), a top game retailer, fell 8.3% on the news to a near two-year low. They haven't recovered since. But the decline could provide investors with an attractive buying opportunity.

While Walmart's price cuts mean GameStop will do the same to remain competitive, the video-game company has a leg up: It doesn't sell just new games. In fact, almost half its profits come from trade-in offers, where consumers bring back their used games and the store then resells them. That's a higher-margin business.

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Critics say jobs programs will need Congressional approval
December 11, 2009 at 3:40 pm

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The Obama administration is considering ways to deploy an estimated $200 billion in unspent funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to help create jobs, but members of an oversight panel warned that Obama would have to ask Congress to enact legislation before the funds could be used.

In a speech Tuesday, Obama said he would order the Treasury to use unspent funds from the TARP program, as well as funds being repaid by banks, to help finance a number of his job creation proposals, including small business loans, more infrastructure spending and a program to encourage homeowners to make their houses more energy efficient. The $700 billion TARP program was set up last year as an emergency measure to prop up banks suffering from the credit crisis.

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The House OK's a sweeping overhaul of financial regulations
December 11, 2009 at 3:30 pm

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A year after Wall Street failures plunged the nation into recession, the House on Friday passed the most ambitious restructuring of financial regulation since the New Deal.The sprawling legislation gives the government new powers to break up companies that threaten the economy, creates a new agency to oversee consumer banking transactions and shines a light into shadow financial markets that have escaped the oversight of regulators.

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Is Men's Health helping its readers get ripped off?
December 11, 2009 at 3:20 pm

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David Zinczenko, the always-camera-ready editor in chief of Rodale Inc.'s Men's Health, once described the ideal effect of a magazine's cover copy as a "newsstand mugging." But Men's Health readers may feel robbed in more ways than one, once they realize how very, very often the publication's editor have been selling them the same old content for a fresh $4.99 every month. Not similar -- the exact same.

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ETFs get religion: New FaithShares funds target Christian denominations
December 11, 2009 at 3:00 pm

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etfs-get-religion-new-faithshares-funds-target-christian-denominationsIncreasingly, people are choosing to put their money where their values are, and that sentiment isn't lost on money managers. Just this week, the first of three exchange-traded funds targeted at Christian investors hit the market. Two more will launch next week.

The securities held in each of the funds, FaithShares Catholic Values Fund , FaithShares Methodist Value Fund and FaithShares Christian Values Fund, are tailored to each denomination's teachings and recommendations for investing. FaithShares Advisors worked with the FTSE Group and KLD Research & Analytics, a provider of environmental, social and governance research and indexes, to create the series of custom indexes on which the funds are based.

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Obama's pay czar limits pay packages for more top executives
December 11, 2009 at 2:30 pm

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obamas-pay-czar-limits-compensation-for-more-executivesMore employees of firms receiving extensive government aid will face caps on their pay, thanks to Obama administration pay czar Kenneth Feinberg (pictured).

For top-earning workers at Citigroup (C), American International Group (AIG), General Motors and GMAC, Feinberg has limited cash compensation at $500,000. The move affects the 26th through 100th highest-paid employees at the companies.

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Consumer sentiment surges in December, beating estimates
December 11, 2009 at 2:00 pm

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Consumer sentiment unexpectedly soared in December, topping off a week in which continuing jobless claims declined further and the Dow made progress solidifying gains above 10,000. The Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers said its consumer sentiment index for December (preliminary) surged to 73.4 from 67.4 in November, Reuters reported Friday.

The index totaled 70.6 in October, 74.0 in September. and 67.5 in August. The index hit a cycle low of 55.3 in November 2008, and the index's record low of 51.7 was set in May 1980.

A Bloomberg News surveyed had expected the index to rise to 68.2 in December (preliminary).

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InkStop locked employees out in the cold, then reopens to liquidate
December 11, 2009 at 1:30 pm

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It won't be such a happy holiday season for employees of InkStop. The printer ink and electronics retailer, which abruptly shut its doors Oct. 1, had said it would reopen after restructuring. On Friday, however, parties in charge of liquidating the company's assets announced that it has begun a sale of InkStop's inventory to raise money to pay off the retailer's debts.

Not all of the retailers 152 stores will reopen for the sale, said the liquidation partners in a written statement. Just 25 to 35 InkStop locations will reopen at selected sites in and around the Philadelphia, Washington, Cleveland, Detroit, Atlanta, St. Louis, Dallas and Denver metropolitan areas. Among the products to be sold are digital cameras, GPS units, MP3 players and computer gadgets. The sale will continue until all merchandise is sold, the liquidation partners said.

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White Collar Reset: How far are you willing to go to get a job?
December 11, 2009 at 1:00 pm

If you think the Great Recession has been tough on middle-aged workers, just try being in your 20s. According to the latest data, adults 25-34 have an unemployment rate of 10.8 percent, nearly a full point higher than the all-age average. For 20- to 24-year-olds, the figure spikes to a staggering 15.6 percent.

For every hyper-educated, super-technologically-evolved twenty or early thirty-something with a stranglehold on a coveted information-economy job, there are at least as many millenials who risk being marginalized in the lowest-wage tiers of the service sector. As The New York Times (NYT) recently pointed out, with hundreds of thousands of young men being forced to move in with their parents or take in extra roommates, even the bachelor pad has come under assault. Bye-bye black leather sofa. Hello twin bed and little league trophies.

But just as some Baby Boomers and Generation X'ers are taking extraordinary measures to claim their stake in the neo-Mad Max recovery, it seems Y'ers are going to equally historic lengths. And Kevin Lee, 27, may hold the record.

Continue reading White Collar Reset: How far are you willing to go to get a job?

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November retail sales beat expectations
December 11, 2009 at 12:40 pm

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The retail industry got an early Christmas present: better-than-expected November sales. The Commerce Department's monthly retail sales tally showed unexpected pockets of strength in retail, including car dealers and online sales. Store and restaurant sales were $352.1 billion, up 1.3% from October and 1.9% from November 2008. Retailers alone sold $314.1 billion of goods, 1.4% more than in October and 2.2% more than a year earlier.

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Business inventories unexpectedly rise, first time in over a year
December 11, 2009 at 12:20 pm

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Business inventories unexpectedly rose 0.2% in October, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Friday, indicating a slight reversal in businesses' cautious stance towards the economy.

A Bloomberg News economists survey had expected inventories to decline 0.2% in October after falling a revised 0.3% in September, less than the previously released 0.4% decline; business inventories also fell 1.5% in August, and 1.0% in July. Further, despite October's unexpected rise, inventories have fallen 12.8% in the past year.

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Goldman's superficial concessions on pay won't fool an angry nation
December 11, 2009 at 12:00 pm

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goldmans-superficial-concessions-on-pay-wont-fool-an-angry-americaWhat business does America have complaining about how much bankers get paid? Surely we can't operate a free-market economy if the average person gets a say on how a company pays its workers.

If you believe that, you're absolutely right. But that's not stopping Goldman Sachs Group (GS) from bowing to pressure from pay critics. Now, if only Goldman could satisfy the American public.

Why are so many Americans so angry? Because they know that the free market -- which supposedly rewards success and punishes failure -- does not determine the fate of the biggest firms, only the small ones that can't buy influence in Washington.

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Apple's Lala deal could strengthen iTunes grip on digital music
December 11, 2009 at 11:30 am

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As acquisitions go, Apple's (AAPL) purchase of music-downloading startup Lala.com was tiny, valued anywhere between $17 million and $80 million, depending on which media source you wish to believe (The Wall Street Journal or TechCrunch). The deal, though, could still hit a high note for the tech bellwether.

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Medicare at 55? Why the latest healthcare proposal is a gift to insurers
December 11, 2009 at 10:30 am

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As the health care debate continues to grind on, the public option seems to be, once again, on the way out. Supporters have hailed the proposal as a way to introduce competition into the marketplace, while opponents have attacked it as socialized medicine and the first step toward rationed health care. Critics have also raised fears that it would invite so-called "death panels" that would euthanize unprofitable patients. Some further muddied the water with the specter of publicly-funded abortions and the argument that governmental leaders and their staffs should be forced to use the same health care plan that they develop for the rest of the country.

One of the latest options, which President Obama has endorsed, would extend Medicare benefits to people aged 55 to 64, in addition to the 65-and-over crowd that it currently assists. While this could be helpful for the millions of new Medicare enrollees, it is unclear how, exactly, it would benefit the rest of the country.

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McDonald's $1 breakfast menu banks on America's love for cheap meat
December 11, 2009 at 10:00 am

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Breakfast for a dollar will become more varied than ever at McDonald's (MCD) restaurants early in January, a company spokesperson said Thursday. The choices, including the sausage McMuffin, sausage burrito, sausage biscuit, small coffee and a hash brown, will complement the eight lunch and dinner menu items currently available for $1 each in the U.S. It's a move which the company's management surely intends to combat a decline in U.S. sales that hit the burger maker hard in November.

The chain had been testing the dollar breakfast menu in Chicago, where Dunkin Donuts is also serving a variety of menu items for 99 cents each. In Kansas City, Mo., and Pittsburgh, Wendy's (WEN) will be testing its own revamped breakfast menu, which will surely include several items joining its 99 cent super value menu, with the intention of rolling it out nationwide in 2011. The chain's 2006 breakfast strategy was retooled due to slack demand. Analysts say these cheap breakfast offerings are a must for the chains in a period of unusually high unemployment. With "fewer people commuting to work, fewer people are coming in for breakfast," writes Paul Ziobro in The Wall Street Journal, logically.

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Americans say tax the wealthy more and spend on job training
December 11, 2009 at 9:45 am

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After reading the latest Bloomberg National Poll on the U.S. economy, one is left wondering whether the poll was conducted in maybe France? Or perhaps Sweden?

No, indeed it was conducted in the U.S., randomly surveying 1,000 adults from Dec. 3-7, and some the results are surprising, to say the least.

Concerning what the U.S. government could do to address the U.S. unemployment rate:

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Ready to rumble: Pfizer's generic biotech drug push could pit it against Amgen
December 11, 2009 at 9:30 am

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For years, Pfizer (PFE) has been trying to prepare for the "patent cliff" it's heading for in 2011. That's when its cholesterol drug Lipitor -- the biggest-selling drug ever with $12 billion in annual sales -- will fall off the rolls of protected drugs. Mindful of that date, the world's No. 1 drugmaker has pursued a variety of different strategies. It restructured with massive layoffs, it completed a megamerger with Wyeth, it made a big push into generics and, more recently, it moved into treating rare diseases.

The latest pursuit? Pfizer is now planning to enter the business of making cheaper copies of pricey, injectable biologic drugs, or biosimilars, Bloomberg reports. With Pfizer reportedly hatching plans to sell the first copies of medicines developed by the world's largest independent biotech Amgen, says Bloomberg, the development is causing concern not just at Amgen, but at other biotechs that fear such competition.

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Stocks in the news: Boeing, National Semi, United Tech
December 11, 2009 at 9:15 am

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Boeing (BA) said on Thursday that its 787 Dreamliner may finally -- finally -- fly as early as Tuesday. After two years of delays, Boeing is allaying concerns that it will miss its latest goal of test flying the long-awaited aircraft before the end of the year. Boeing shares climbed 2% in pre-market trading.

National Semiconductor (NSM) beat analysts' earnings and sales estimates for its fiscal 2010 second quarter. The company reported earnings of 20 cents per share, on $345 million in sales, beating analysts' estimates of 14 cents EPS on $336.7 million in revenue. Still, shares declined 2.2% ahead of the bell as the company projected sequentially flat sales in its third quarter.

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Retail sales gain steam in November, doubling expectations
December 11, 2009 at 8:47 am

retail salesRetail sales rose more than expected in November, boosting hopes that the all-important consumer sector will support the fragile recovery.

The government's report came as a surprise because the nation's retailers have been reporting generally lackluster results for the start of the holiday shopping season and consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of overall economic activity.

But retail sales rose 1.3 percent last month, after a 1.1 percent October gain, the Commerce Department said Friday. It was the biggest advance since sales jumped 2.4 percent in August, and more than double the 0.6 percent increase economists had expected.

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Daily Blogwatch: Does the market go up when the sun shines?
December 11, 2009 at 8:30 am

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For those looking for yield this winter, here are the top-yielding electric utility stocks.

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The market is up 62% in the past nine months. When has this happened before?

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My top 10 stock picks for 2010.

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Stocks to open higher; retail sales data in focus
December 11, 2009 at 8:05 am

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U.S. stocks are poised Friday to continue Thursday's rally. While on Thursday investors mulled through jobs, housing and budget data, this morning the focus is on retail sales data. The Commerce Department is to release the November figures an hour before the opening bell. The general expectations are for a good report, but if the data disappoint, it could affect the general mood of the market.

Meanwhile, overseas markets were higher after data out of China showed industrial production and imports are still strong and exports are recovering, indicating stronger demand in and out of the mainland.

More here: Before the bell: Futures higher ahead of retail sales data

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China blows by U.S. as world's largest car market
December 11, 2009 at 7:50 am

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China has overtaken the U.S. as the world's largest car market. The Associated Press reports that research firm JP Power expects China's light vehicle sales will be 12.7 million in 2009, up 44% from the previous year. U.S. car and light truck sales will be only 10.3 million. Four years ago, American vehicles sales topped 16 million.

Monthly car sales in China have been running ahead of the U.S. for several months, so the news is not altogether unexpected -- and it is not necessarily bad news for American car companies. GM sold 177,000 cars in China in November, about 20,000 more than it did in the U.S. GM and German car company VW are the leaders in the car market on the Chinese mainland.

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China property stocks tumble, Hong Kong's Foxconn surges on iPhone 4G rumor
December 11, 2009 at 7:00 am

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In Asia today Japan's Nikkei 225 Index gained 2.5% to 10,108 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.9% to 21,902. In China, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,247 -- down 0.2%.

In China, property developers stocks fell on worries that the government will increase interest rates and tighten lending policies. The country's largest real estate companies suffered losses with both China Vanke (CVKEF) and Poly Real Estate sliding 1%. Gemdale, which builds residential tower buildings in cities including Shenzhen, Shanghai and Xi'an sank 0.8%. The company has also undertaken projects to develop entire European-style communities with names like Gemdale Green Town, which it describes as having "international-standard German-style buildings and beautiful landscape," situated in a resort area.

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The TARPing of small business
December 11, 2009 at 5:00 am

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A plan that would use part of the TARP pool of funds to aid small business is gaining momentum among Administration financial leaders. The lead story in The Washington Post on December 11th says "One plan under consideration involves spinning off a new entity from the Troubled Assets Relief Program that would give banks access to federal funds without restrictions, including limits on executive pay, as long as the money was used to support loans to small businesses."

The plan may actually work if it can overcome a modest number of high hurdles. The first of these is that small businesses may not want to hire new workers even if they have access to low interest rate loans or tax credits. The credits are not part of the TARP proposal but have been discussed in Congress. The recession may be over in the minds of economists, but consumers and small business operators are still facing a market with high unemployment and extremely cautious customers. Adding workers may appear to be a good idea; It increases the capacity to create goods and services for companies as the economic rebound accelerates. But, if the economy stalls, it simply adds new layers of cost. Most businesses are tempted to squeeze maximum production out of the workers they already have.

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