12/18 The Wikinvest Daily Angle

Please add updates@feedmyinbox.com to your address book to make sure you receive these messages in the future. The Wikinvest Daily Angle - Market Insight and Commentary from Wikinvest.com The Short Case For General Growth Properties (GGWPQ) December 17, 2009 at 2:01 am Today’s Daily Angle comes from Wikinvest Wire members MarketFolly. You can read the full article on the Market Folly blog. Flash Player 9 or higher is required to view the chart Click here to download Flash Player now View the full O:GGWPQ chart at Wikinvest Over the course of this year we’ve shared various presentations on the potential bullish prospects for mall REITGeneral Growth Properties (GGWPQ) courtesy of Bill Ackman’s hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management. These have included a recent outlook on the mall REIT industry, an update on their holding via Pershing Square’sinvestor letter, as well as their previous presentation on General Growth. As one of the largest shareholders, Pershing Square has been at the forefront leading the charge. Today, we want to flip the tables and present the short case for General Growth Properties, courtesy of Hovde Capital Advisors. Hovde Capital Advisors LLC is an investment manager that runs various hedge funds. They employ a “sector-specific, deep-value, long/short strategy” and utilize a combination of both top-down and bottom-up in their approach. Back in March of this year we actually covered President and CEO Eric Hovde’s thoughts on the market as he thought we were in a depression and that commercial real estate defaults would hit as high as 25%. There are always two sides to a trade and this is the perfect example. Hovde Capital prudently points out that many investors have been using Pershing Square’s original GGWPQ presentation as a means for valuing General Growth Properties… a presentation that is now well outdated. In their analysis below, they update and expand upon Pershing’s original model in order to provide a more current look at the situation from a bottom-up level. They first examine the macro environment just as Pershing Square did in their recent Mall REIT presentation. While Pershing’s highlights potential improvement, Hovde takes the other side and highlights how we are by no means out of the woods yet, citing a drop in consumer spending, a decrease in available consumer credit, and non-bullish trends for mall REITs in particular. Focusing next specifically on General Growth, Hovde believes that that a 7.5% capitalization rate is a far too optimistic assumption given that recent comparables have been higher than 8%. Additionally, they highlight that GGWPQ’s cashflow is now more than 20% below the levels in 2008. While the fact that General Growth is extremely leveraged as well known, Hovde points out that rival Simon Property Group (SPG) has debt to EBITDA of 6x while GGWPQ is “in excess of 16x and would still be in excess of 12x even if all of the unsecured debt was converted to equity.” Potentially the most alarming to the bulls though is Hovde’s focus on net operating income (NOI) sensitivity. They write, “applying Q3 annualized NOI to the Pershing Square valuation analysis, the implied equity value per share of the company today is NEGATIVE $5.03 at an 8.5% cap rate and +$5.73 at a 7.5% cap rate.” Needless to say, they are decidedly bearish on GGWPQ. Going forward, one of the focal points in this whole scenario will be cap rates. Hovde feels an 8% cap rate is unrealistic given the reality of the economic situation and they argue that a cap rate of 8.5% or higher would be more appropriate. Hovde are short shares of GGWPQ and think that equity investors will instead be disappointed upon GGWPQ’s reorganization. Embedded on the Market Folly home page is the short case for General Growth, entitled “Fool’s Gold”, in its entirety. Check out the presentation. Or you can download the .pdf here. So there you have it: “Fool’s Gold,” the bearish argument for General Growth Properties (GGWPQ). We thought it would be interesting to examine both sides of the trade as we’d previously examined the long case for GGWPQ and then today we shared the short case with you. We’ll continue to watch this intriguing situation unfold as hedge funds wager on the impending outcome. As always, don’t shoot the messenger. Since circulation of this presentation, Todd over at ValuePlays.net has penned a rebuttal to Hovde’s presentation. Ironically, Hovde claims many are using outdated numbers from Pershing’s presentation and Todd points out that Hovde themselves are also using outdated numbers. Interesting stuff. Secondly, hedge fund manager Whitney Tilson of T2 Partners has also penned a rebuttal as it seems Hovde has been called out on their conclusions. The battle of bulls versus bears continues on…   This email was sent to gatdemit001@gmail.com.  Create Your Account Don't want to receive this feed any longer? Unsubscribe here.

12/18 DailyFinance

Please add updates@feedmyinbox.com to your address book to make sure you receive these messages in the future. DailyFinance World Pledges $100 Billion Yearly to Help Poorer Nations Cut Emissions December 17, 2009 at 7:15 pm As the world's leaders converge on Copenhagen for the global climate summit, the clouds over what had been deemed a fairly useless exercise in geopolitical stagecraft appeared to be lifting on Thursday. China, the United Kingdom and the United States all stated a climate-change agreement of some sort could be reached. Frameworks for potential deals began to emerge, with developing nations voicing support for compromise proposals. Most dramatic was a proposal that rich nations provide a $100 billion per year climate-change fund to help poorer nations mitigate global warming and reduce carbon emissions. Continue reading World Pledges $100 Billion Yearly to Help Poorer Nations Cut Emissions World Pledges $100 Billion Yearly to Help Poorer Nations Cut Emissions originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 19:15:00. Filed Under: Green Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Research in Motion Soars, but Palm Tumbles December 17, 2009 at 5:50 pm It's a tale of two companies, one naughty and one nice: In order, Palm, the struggling, one-time smartphone pioneer, and Research in Motion, which makes the BlackBerry. The two companies reported widely divergent results on Thursday, offering a stark dichotomy of success and failure amid the most competitive and fast-moving mobile-phone market in history. Continue reading Research in Motion Soars, but Palm Tumbles Research in Motion Soars, but Palm Tumbles originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:50:00. Filed Under: Company News, Technology, Earnings, Google , Research In Motion, Apple, AT&T, Verizon, Palm Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Pfizer Wins Dismissal of 23 Prempro Lawsuits December 17, 2009 at 5:40 pm For Pfizer (PFE), most of the news lately on the legal front has been bad. The pharmaceutical giant has faced setbacks in and out of courtrooms across the nation, and in September agreed to pay a record $2.3 billion to settle civil and criminal charges in a case about off-label drug promotion. But this week, Pfizer got a bit of good news regarding some of the hormone replacement therapy cases against it. A New York judge dismissed at least 23 lawsuits against Pfizer units Wyeth and Pharmacia & Upjohn, as well as Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA), filed by women who claimed that the menopause drugs Prempro, Premarin and Provera had caused their breast cancers. Continue reading Pfizer Wins Dismissal of 23 Prempro Lawsuits Pfizer Wins Dismissal of 23 Prempro Lawsuits originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:40:00. Filed Under: Healthcare, Pfizer Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Coke Shines in New Solar Deal December 17, 2009 at 5:30 pm Coca-Cola (KO) announced another major green initiative in the teeth of the Copenhagen eco-frenzy on December 14, as the world's biggest beverage company pushes ahead with an aggressive green agenda. Coca-Cola announced it had signed an agreement with Spanish utility Endesa to install a large three megawatt solar installation on rooftops of two Coca-Cola buildings in Seville, Spain. The project will use solar panels made by Energy Conversion Devices (ENER), a maker of thin-film flexible solar panels based in Rochester Hills, Mich. Continue reading Coke Shines in New Solar Deal Coke Shines in New Solar Deal originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:30:00. Filed Under: Technology, Coca-Cola Company Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Media World: Why Is TV Viewership Still Rising? December 17, 2009 at 4:50 pm TV viewership, which has been climbing steadily for years, is rising further still, thanks to a proliferation of cable channels and the growth in use of digital videorecorders (DVRs). Or is it because the boob tube remains a relatively cheap form of entertainment in these tough economic times? Continue reading Media World: Why Is TV Viewership Still Rising? Media World: Why Is TV Viewership Still Rising? originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 16:50:00. Filed Under: Columns, Media Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Finance Pros Predict Little Hiring in 2010 December 17, 2009 at 4:30 pm More evidence that the U.S. may be facing a jobless recovery emerged Thursday as the Association of Financial Professionals reported that more than a quarter of surveyed respondents say their companies will continue to cut payrolls in 2010, and only 25% expect their payroll numbers to return to pre-recession levels by 2011. What's even more disturbing is that 30% of financial professionals surveyed don't ever expect their companies to return to pre-recessionary payroll levels. Continue reading Finance Pros Predict Little Hiring in 2010 Finance Pros Predict Little Hiring in 2010 originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 16:30:00. Filed Under: Economy Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Saks: A Luxury Retailer at a Bargain Price December 17, 2009 at 4:15 pm The retail sector will hardly be a star performer in the five-year period ahead, particularly if the U.S.'s 'frugal consumer' trend continues. A decade of excessive consumption, over-expansion by chains and malls and now tightened credit spell one sure thing for retail: consolidation. Several chains will go out of business. But there are exceptions and Saks (SKS) will be one. Continue reading Saks: A Luxury Retailer at a Bargain Price Saks: A Luxury Retailer at a Bargain Price originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 16:15:00. Filed Under: Investing, Saks, Stock Picks Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Bullish on the Bunny: Porn Titan Buying Playboy Shares December 17, 2009 at 3:25 pm Playboy Enterprises Inc. (PLA), whose shares tanked Wednesday after a planned sale of the adult media empire collapsed, has one of porn's biggest executives in its corner. Bill Asher, the co-chief executive of the world's largest adult video producer, Vivid Entertainment Group, tells DailyFinance that he now owns 1 million shares of the company of the company Hugh Hefner founded more than 50 years ago. Continue reading Bullish on the Bunny: Porn Titan Buying Playboy Shares Bullish on the Bunny: Porn Titan Buying Playboy Shares originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:25:00. Filed Under: Company News, Earnings, Media Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Finding Value in Roy Disney's Shamrock Holdings December 17, 2009 at 3:00 pm Roy E. Disney, who died yesterday at the age of 79, may be best remembered as the nephew of Walt Disney. As a youngster, Roy grew up often playing the role of a test audience for such Disney (DIS) hits as Pinocchio and other early Disney animation movies. He lived and breathed the animation business from childhood on, successfully bringing back a revival of the movie studio's animation division in the 1980s with hits such as The Little Mermaid. But there was another side to Roy Disney that is, perhaps, lesser known: Disney was one of the country's premier activist investors. Continue reading Finding Value in Roy Disney's Shamrock Holdings Finding Value in Roy Disney's Shamrock Holdings originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:00:00. Filed Under: Company News, People, Investing Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Credit Card Issuers Face Angry Customers and Lost Revenue December 17, 2009 at 1:00 pm Credit card consumers are voting with their feet and letting credit card issuers know they're not going to take it any more. Two-thirds of credit card users have modified their spending habits or changed providers in response to harsh issuer changes this year, according to comScore's 2009 Online Credit Card Report. Continue reading Credit Card Issuers Face Angry Customers and Lost Revenue Credit Card Issuers Face Angry Customers and Lost Revenue originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 13:00:00. Filed Under: Economy, People, JP Morgan Chase, American Express, Bank of America, Citigroup Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Insurers to Offer Reputational Risk Coverage December 17, 2009 at 1:00 pm Lloyd's of London once said it would insure any company or person against any risk or event -- at a price, of course. Corporations can now buy insurance that covers everything from hedges against bad weather to "key man" policies that make large payouts if a CEO dies. Continue reading Insurers to Offer Reputational Risk Coverage Insurers to Offer Reputational Risk Coverage originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 13:00:00. Filed Under: Company News, People Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments China Teams with Shaolin Monks to Kick Off Stock Sale December 17, 2009 at 12:40 pm Talk about your alternative investments: China's world-famous Shaolin monks are joining forces with the state-owned China Travel Service to set up a venture to promote travel to their 1,500-year-old monastery. The new company will raise as much as 1 billion yuan ($146.4 million) in a share listing, according to the Associated Press. Continue reading China Teams with Shaolin Monks to Kick Off Stock Sale China Teams with Shaolin Monks to Kick Off Stock Sale originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 12:40:00. Filed Under: People, Investing, Media Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Bernanke Gets Senate Panel Approval for a Second Term December 17, 2009 at 12:30 pm Love him or hate him, Ben Bernanke, also known as Time magazine's Man of the Year, is likely headed for a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve after the Senate Banking Committee gave him the thumbs up. The vote was 16 - 7 on Thursday. The chairman's nomination for another four years helming the nation's central bank now moves to the full Senate for confirmation. Continue reading Bernanke Gets Senate Panel Approval for a Second Term Bernanke Gets Senate Panel Approval for a Second Term originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 12:30:00. Filed Under: Economy, People Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Simon Cowell Rages Against Campaign to Top Christmas Pop Charts December 17, 2009 at 12:20 pm Christmas in Britain is a time of tradition. There's goose and mincemeat pie, there's Boxing Day -- and there's the race to the top of the pops. Music fans and oddsmakers spend the weeks before the holiday theorizing about what single will take the sales-only U.K. Singles Chart's top spot during Christmas week, an honor that's conferred annually by a frenzy of last-minute holiday shoppers. Past chart-topppers have included Band Aid's 1984 charity single "Do They Know It's Christmas?" (and its 1989 and 2004 sequels), TV-spawned girl group Girls Aloud's 2002 "Sound of The Underground," and kiddie cartoon Bob the Builder's "Can We Fix It." Continue reading Simon Cowell Rages Against Campaign to Top Christmas Pop Charts Simon Cowell Rages Against Campaign to Top Christmas Pop Charts originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 12:20:00. Filed Under: Sony Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Leading Economic Indicators Rise Again, Signaling Recovery December 17, 2009 at 12:00 pm More encouraging signs for the U.S. economy emerged Thursday, as Conference Board's closely-watched index of leading economic indicators rose a better-than-expected 0.9% in November and the Federal Reserve's survey of manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic states also climbed. Continue reading Leading Economic Indicators Rise Again, Signaling Recovery Leading Economic Indicators Rise Again, Signaling Recovery originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 12:00:00. Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Bullet Trains in the U.S.? Japan Central Says 'All Aboard' December 17, 2009 at 11:40 am Although the future of American high-speed rail is still unclear, Japan Central Railway already has its eye on potential contracts. Recently, the company hosted a demonstration of its fastest bullet trains to rebut claims by European manufacturers that the company's locomotives can't top 170 mph. In the test, the railway's shinkansen trains exceeded 200 mph. Continue reading Bullet Trains in the U.S.? Japan Central Says 'All Aboard' Bullet Trains in the U.S.? Japan Central Says 'All Aboard' originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 11:40:00. Filed Under: Technology, Economy Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Search Engine Shakeout: Bing Grabs Market Share as Yahoo Waffles December 17, 2009 at 10:45 am A major shakeout is taking place among the Internet's search engines. The biggest surprise, perhaps, is that the recently launched Bing search site from Microsoft (MSFT) is at the center of it. Bing, which went live in May, is eating into Yahoo's (YHOO) struggling search business. At least that is what comScore, a Reston, Va.-based company that tracks Web traffic is reporting. Continue reading Search Engine Shakeout: Bing Grabs Market Share as Yahoo Waffles Search Engine Shakeout: Bing Grabs Market Share as Yahoo Waffles originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 10:45:00. Filed Under: Technology, Google , Microsoft, Yahoo Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Treasury Postpones Sale of Citi Shares December 17, 2009 at 10:30 am It looks like Citigroup (C) won't be rid of government ownership as quickly as it hoped. The Treasury Department has postponed its planned sale of up to $5 billion in Citi stock after Wall Street gave the plan a cool reception. Investors were willing to pay only $3.15 per share, 10 cents less than the government paid for the stock. Continue reading Treasury Postpones Sale of Citi Shares Treasury Postpones Sale of Citi Shares originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 10:30:00. Filed Under: Company News, Investing, Citigroup Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Initial Jobless Claims Rise to Higher-Than-Expected 480,000 December 17, 2009 at 9:30 am The U.S. economy hit a minor setback on the employment front, as initial jobless claims edged 7,000 higher to 480,000 for the week ending Dec. 12, the Labor Department announced Thursday. The total came in well above the 465,000 Bloomberg News consensus estimate. Meanwhile, continuing claims rose 5,000 to 5.186 million. However, the 4-week moving average for initial jobless claims fell 5,250 to 467,500. Continue reading Initial Jobless Claims Rise to Higher-Than-Expected 480,000 Initial Jobless Claims Rise to Higher-Than-Expected 480,000 originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 09:30:00. Filed Under: Economy Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Stocks in the News: Bank of America, Citigroup, FedEx December 17, 2009 at 9:10 am Bank of America (BAC) named Brian Moynihan to succeed Ken Lewis as president and CEO. Moynihan says he doesn't expect to lead a major shift in strategy when he takes over on Jan. 1. Investors, however, may expect more action as loan losses continue to mount. Continue reading Stocks in the News: Bank of America, Citigroup, FedEx Stocks in the News: Bank of America, Citigroup, FedEx originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 09:10:00. Filed Under: Company News, Investing Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments At Least New Bofa CEO Brian Moynihan Knows the Bank Well December 17, 2009 at 9:00 am Bank of America (BAC) has finally picked a successor to Ken Lewis. After months of trying to recruit an external candidate for the now worse-than-thankless job, BofA has picked Brian Moynihan as its new CEO. He's held several key positions inside the bank, including a role as the in-house lawyer who helped negotiate its deal to acquire Merrill Lynch. Since Ken Lewis announced he would leave -- in the wake of allegations that he misled Congress when discussing what he knew about Merrill Lynch's financial condition before buying it -- BofA's board had struggled to find a suitable replacement. Continue reading At Least New Bofa CEO Brian Moynihan Knows the Bank Well At Least New Bofa CEO Brian Moynihan Knows the Bank Well originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 09:00:00. Filed Under: Bank of America Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Daily Blogwatch: How to Lose $10 Billion in 10 Years. Plus, Will Gold Crash? December 17, 2009 at 8:30 am Below are some of the best reads for investors from around the Web: How to use Google (GOOG) to predict the unemployment rate. ____________ Is Star Wars a textbook example of game theory in action? ____________ Uh oh! Famed short seller Jim Chanos is targeting the automakers as his next victims. ____________ Continue reading Daily Blogwatch: How to Lose $10 Billion in 10 Years. Plus, Will Gold Crash? Daily Blogwatch: How to Lose $10 Billion in 10 Years. Plus, Will Gold Crash? originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 08:30:00. Filed Under: Company News, Columns, Economy, Investing, Google Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments Stocks Poised for a Weak Start December 17, 2009 at 8:20 am U.S. stocks are poised to continue Wednesday's weakness, in response to the Federal Reserve's late afternoon statement. While the bank kept rates low and signaled improving financial markets and economic recovery, it also indicated it would end several emergency policies aimed at ensuring liquidity. Investors will also keep an eye on economic reports that are due Thursday morning, while sifting through some earnings reports. More here: Before the Bell: Futures Lower After Fed Statement, Ahead of Data Continue reading Stocks Poised for a Weak Start Stocks Poised for a Weak Start originally appeared on DailyFinance on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 08:20:00. Filed Under: Economy, Investing Permalink | Tweet this! | Comments   This email was sent to gatdemit001@gmail.com.  Create Your Account Don't want to receive this feed any longer? Unsubscribe here.

12/18 BusinessWeek.com -- Finance

Please add updates@feedmyinbox.com to your address book to make sure you receive these messages in the future. BusinessWeek.com -- Finance Moody's: Homebuilding Looks Stable for First Time Since 2006 December 17, 2009 at 4:42 pm The investor service says that homebuilders face the first stable outlook in four years on stronger sales and housing starts Investment Outlook 2010 December 17, 2009 at 2:52 pm Senior Editor Suzanne Woolley, who edited the cover package, and Economics Editor Peter Coy discuss investing ideas with Assistant Managing Editor Jim Ellis. One big theme: going global Regulator: Bonuses, Dividends May Be Limited at Weak Banks December 17, 2009 at 12:11 pm The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision also said banks should increase the quality of the capital they hold to cope with losses Luxury Homeowners in U.S. Use 'Short Sales' as Defaults Rise December 17, 2009 at 12:08 pm Homeowners with $1 million-plus mortgages are defaulting at almost twice the U.S. rate and many are turning to short sales Stocks on the Move: Citigroup, FedEx, LDK Solar December 17, 2009 at 11:22 am Plus more stocks making headlines in Thursday's market Stock Picks: Citigroup, BofA December 17, 2009 at 10:49 am Plus Wall Street analyst opinions on First Solar and Alexander & Baldwin U.S. Delays Sale of Citigroup Stake December 17, 2009 at 8:45 am The share price in Citi's $17 billion equity sale was so low that the government delayed plans to shrink its one-third stake in the bank U.S. Stock-Index Futures Fall December 17, 2009 at 5:05 am Indexes pointed to a lower open on Wall Street Thursday. Shares of Citigroup and Alcoa fell in Europe   This email was sent to gatdemit001@gmail.com.  Create Your Account Don't want to receive this feed any longer? Unsubscribe here.