11/10 Daily Markets

Please add updates@feedmyinbox.com to your address book to make sure you receive these messages in the future. Daily Markets - Your Views Make News Is It Time To Stick A Fork In The Dollar And Dollar ETFs? November 9, 2009 at 10:01 pm The United States dollar is currently so weak that people are beginning to ask if it’ll ever claw its way back. While the role of the dollar is sorted out, exchange traded funds (ETFs) can help you play its present and its future. Is the world finally losing its appetite for the U.S. dollar? Michael Schuman for Time asks the question. There are signs we should be concerned: The price of gold has catapulted to new highs and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is selling 200 metric … [visit site to read more] What To Invest In When Population Explodes November 9, 2009 at 9:01 pm It was pouring rain in Manhattan when I tried to begin my long journey back to my hometown in Maryland. There was a long line for cabs, and I had to get to Penn Station to catch a train. So I took a bicycle rickshaw whose driver was eager for business. “The only way to travel in Manhattan,” he said. He was a stout fellow with a shaved head and bad teeth that looked like blackened pylons on an old waterfront. I hopped in and we zipped through traffic. At one point, he crossed over the … [visit site to read more] Bloomberg Joins Ranks Calling For FINRA Transparency November 9, 2009 at 8:01 pm Calls for increased transparency from Wall Street’s self-regulatory organization FINRA continue to mount. How so? None other than Bloomberg joins the ranks of Barrons, The New York Times, and Sense on Cents in calling on the courts to compel FINRA to release unredacted documents relating to the merger of the NASD with NYSE Regulation. That merger formed FINRA. As I have highlighted previously, the core of a complaint filed on behalf of Standard Investment Chartered alleges that FINRA … [visit site to read more] Singapore Stock Market: United Envirotech Has Rising Recurring Income November 9, 2009 at 7:01 pm UNITED ENVIROTECH is one of the earlier S-chips to list on the Singapore Exchange. It was listed in 2004 and has sailed through the years with its reputation intact while some S-chips ran into corporate governance and accounting issues. The company isn’t exactly an S-chip. Its founder, CEO and chairman is Dr Lin Yucheng, who has been a Singapore citizen since 1993. I first met Dr Lin around the time of the company’s IPO. I learnt then that he grew up in Fujian province, received … [visit site to read more] Kraft Launches Hostile Bid For Cadbury - Is That The Final Offer? November 9, 2009 at 7:01 pm Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) yesterday (Monday) refused to sweeten its $16.4 billion offer for Cadbury PLC (CBY). Instead, the North American food giant repeated the terms of its original offer, which Cadbury rejected two months ago. Kraft will now put its bid directly to Cadbury shareholders, setting the stage for a battle that could last months. Cadbury swiftly rejected the bid, saying the offer is now worth less than the initial proposal, which had already undervalued the company.  … [visit site to read more] Stock Picks For Tuesday: JA Solar Holdings Co., Rambus And KHD Humboldt Wedag International November 9, 2009 at 7:01 pm ( click to enlarge ) Rambus (RMBS) shares surged today on heavy volume after some rumors of a positive court ruling. I’m still believing in a great victory for Rambus if nothing happens before. I keep my long position intact. From a technical standpoint, the stock crossed its 50-day moving average and closed up $1.50 at $18.11. The new bullish trend on my technical daily chart looks good. My model is long, targeting 20. Key resistance is now located at 19.22, a break above this … [visit site to read more] Morgan Stanley Seeks Divestiture In China November 9, 2009 at 7:01 pm Morgan Stanley (MS) is pursuing a buyer to sell its 34% stake that it holds in investment bank China International Capital Corporation (CICC). Morgan Stanley’s role in CICC has been reduced to that of a passive investor, prompting the case for disinvestment. Morgan Stanley received approval from Chinese regulators early last year to sell its stake in CICC. However, it then did not opt for the disinvestment as the bids were very low at that time. As the markets have now bounced back, … [visit site to read more] Are ETFs Creating An Emerging Market Bubble? November 9, 2009 at 7:01 pm Emerging markets exchange traded funds (ETFs) have raked in about $26 billion so far this year, which has sparked concern that all this hot money is feeding a growing asset bubble. But is this so? Some fear that this so-called “mindless money” is being thrown at these markets, distorting valuations and pumping up a potentially monstrous bubble. Several markets, such as Brazil and Peru, are up 100% this year. Jason Zweig for The Wall Street Journal reports that as money pours into the … [visit site to read more] US Dollar Keeps Slipping And Overseas Gains Set Positive Tone For Wall Street November 9, 2009 at 6:16 pm Cusick’s Corner The Dollar just keeps slipping and this really should not come as a surprise following comments from the G-20 and the fact that the Treasury does not seem to mind the weak Dollar. After this most recent leg up it is hard to say which market sectors or names look appealing to pick up at this stage to potentially ride higher. Traders seem to be keeping the winners that they have and are looking for names that either are technically over extended, whether over bought, (5 … [visit site to read more] No Inflation Problem - Fed Should Be More Concerned About Getting Economy Moving Again November 9, 2009 at 6:01 pm Analytically, there are three components to an interest rate. The first is the risk that the money will not be paid back. This is a very big factor when dealing with corporate bonds, especially junk bonds. For the U.S. government’s obligations, as the owner of a nice shiny printing press that can always be turned on to pay back any obligation denominated in dollars, that part is assumed to be zero. The second part is expected inflation. After all, if you decide that you want to consume … [visit site to read more] Video: 11/09 NYSE Closing Bell Market Monitor: GE, MCD, ANF, FCX November 9, 2009 at 5:11 pm The latest in news, commentary, and information on what’s moving the US equities markets. Watch this broadcast LIVE at 4:00 pm EST daily @ “http://www.nyx.com/marketmonitor” … [visit site to read more] Contrarian Alert For Gold Bulls November 9, 2009 at 5:01 pm When two of the world’s biggest newspapers write big Sunday pieces on one of your favorite investments, is it time to cash out? Heh, if you answered yes, sell some gold today. Both the New York Times and the Los Angeles Times are making our contrarian bone ache with weekend edition titles like “Inside the Global Frenzy for Gold” and “Why Gold Is Shining Brighter.” They’ve helped push the spot price to $1,110 an ounce early this morning, yet another record high. Addison Wiggin and … [visit site to read more] Video: 11/09 Recall Alert: Nokia Recalls 14 Million Mobile Phone Chargers November 9, 2009 at 4:48 pm Nokia Corp. announced Monday that it will recall some 14 million mobile phone chargers sold in europe and North America that could cause electric shock when touched. … [visit site to read more] Video: 11/09 Crude Rises Above $80 November 9, 2009 at 4:48 pm Front month crude prices rose to open the trading week on a weaker dollar and weather concerns. … [visit site to read more] Toyota Swings To Profit On Government Incentive Programs November 9, 2009 at 4:38 pm Toyota Motors (TM) returned to profitability in the second quarter of fiscal 2010 ended Sept. 30, 2009, after reporting losses since the third quarter of fiscal 2009. The company posted a profit of ¥21.8 billion ($232 million) or ¥6.96 (7 cents) per share. This can be attributed to government incentive programs across the world — such as “Cash for Clunkers” — that helped the company recoup its market share. However, this is still lower than the ¥139.8 billion ($1.49 billion) or … [visit site to read more] Slow And Painful, Joblessness Could Rise To 13 Percent November 9, 2009 at 4:36 pm “This is going to be the mother of all jobless recoveries,” said Gluskin Sheff & Associates’ David Rosenberg today in an interview. Noting that at the beginning of the year very few anticipated 10 percent unemployment, he now expects a “post-World War II high of 13 percent.” That would be the highest jobless rate since 1948. He also outlined several other important points. First, he sees the economy as in a secular post credit bubble collapse. Second, he doesn’t believe cash … [visit site to read more] Will Chinese Buying Revive Soybean Bull Market? November 9, 2009 at 4:01 pm Fundamentals Despite less than ideal weather conditions as the Soybean crop entered maturity, traders and analysts are expecting an increase in the U.S. Soybean crop estimate when the USDA releases its November Crop Production and Supply/Demand report on Tuesday. Average estimates are for a U.S. Soybean crop of 3.27 billion bushels, or about 20 million bushels higher than the October government estimate. Average yields are expected to have increased by 0.3 bushel per acre to 42.7 … [visit site to read more] As McDonalds Stock Surges, Some Put Sellers Are Lovin' It! November 9, 2009 at 3:52 pm MCD - McDonald’s Corp. - Egg McMuffin-maker, McDonald’s Corp., experienced a 1.5% rally in shares to $62.57, allowing some investors to bank significant profits today. Shares of world’s largest restaurant company increased on news that global sales rose 3.3% in October. A couple of traders lined their pockets with profits by closing out short put positions in the December contract. It appears one investor originally sold 10,000 puts short at the December 50 strike, receiving 2.00 apiece … [visit site to read more] New S&P 500 Highs Forecast By Fifth Sprung Bear Trap November 9, 2009 at 3:35 pm Well, folks, the bulls have done it again - it looks like buyers have sprung an amazing fifth Bear Trap in the last few months that - if recent history repeats - will lead to another new high in the S&P 500. Let’s take a look at the prior four traps that led to new highs: What I’m showing is the daily S&P 500 from early June, 2009. The highlighted regions represent the unyielding price rise (almost literally straight up for 8 or 9 days at a time) that came directly after … [visit site to read more] IBM Offers Debt Exchange November 9, 2009 at 3:16 pm International Business Machines (IBM) announced an offer to certain debt holders to exchange their long-term debt with bonds carrying a lower interest rate plus cash. IBM said that the 7.125% debentures due 2096, 7% debentures due 2045 and 8% notes due 2038 can be swapped for a new series of 5.6% senior notes due 2039 and cash. The new debt will be unsecured senior notes. To make the bond holders agree and lure them to tender early and exchange higher-interest debt with lower rate … [visit site to read more] Commodities-Rich Australia Leads The West's Recovery November 9, 2009 at 3:01 pm The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) last month became the first Western economy to raise its key interest rate since the financial crisis began almost two years ago. It proceeded to raise the rate for a second time in a month last week, just before it published its quarterly report on Friday, which says bottlenecks obstructing exports of its vast resources such as iron ore and coal are about to be relieved. “Over the next two years, if capacity comes on line as planned, production of … [visit site to read more] AUD/USD Tests The 100 Bar Moving Average At The 0.9290 Level But Stays Above The 200 Bar Moving Average November 9, 2009 at 2:58 pm The AUDUSD has moved below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 0.9290 level.  That is the bearish slant.  The bullish slant, is the price remains above the 200 bar MA at the 0.9275 level. Traders have been using this moving average as support with the exception of the 30 or so minutes after the Friday US employment report. During this period there were two volatile moves below and above the moving average.  These were the 1st breaches to the downside of this key MA since … [visit site to read more] Gold Surge Inspires GLD Options Combination November 9, 2009 at 2:43 pm GLD - SPDR Gold Trust - Not 100% sure on this trade, but we’re throwing it out there anyway on a best-efforts basis. It appears that an investor has built an iron-condor using the June contract in the gold exchange traded fund today. Gold has taken advantage of further weakness in the value of the dollar after weekend commentary from the IMF and G20 ministers (see our IB FX View) and broke convincingly through $1,100 per ounce and is heading for a ninth consecutive annual gain. Currently … [visit site to read more] Midday Stock Market Update: Dow Hits A Yearly High November 9, 2009 at 2:34 pm Stocks and exchange traded funds (ETFs) are being cheered this morning after the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared to hits highest level in a year. Materials and financials are surging, while gold is also touching on new highs. The markets were mainly lifted by a pledge from the Group of 20 to keep their stimulus measures in place. Traders saw the announcement as a signal the interest rates would stay low for the time being, report Ieva M. Augstums and Tim Paradis for the Associated … [visit site to read more] EUR/USD Tilting Down But Not Running As NY Session Consolidates The Move Higher November 9, 2009 at 2:28 pm The EURUSD has been consolidating over most of the NY day with a NY low of 1.4981 and a NY high of 1.5020. This is after the Far East and London took the pair up from1.4853 level.    The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart has been breached on the downside at the 1.4997 currently, but the momentum down has not been all that great to say the least. Nevertheless, if the price can remain below the 100 bar MA a further correction to the 200 bar MA at the to 1.4968 would be the next … [visit site to read more] S&P 500 Options Play Strangle Pong Update November 9, 2009 at 2:20 pm On October 30th, in Strangle Pong, I talked about the possibility of legging into an S&P 500 index strangle, starting with the sale of a November SPX 1040 put and looking to sell a November SPX 1100 call when the index rallied back over 1080. Here we are six trading days later and the SPX November 1040 put, which was at about 24.00 at the time of my original post has fallen back to just over 8.00 as I type this. The table to the right shows the closing values for the 1040 put … [visit site to read more] Stocks Are Broadly Higher On Talk Of Further Stimulus And Kraft's Cadbury Offer November 9, 2009 at 2:16 pm Cusick’s Corner Shorts seem to be on the defensive, especially after the G20 said that they will continue to provide Viagra, I mean stimulus (read summary below). This current rally is being scrutinized, checking if this is a short squeeze or if there is potentially more traction gaining in sectors that have been lagging this latest leg up, like Financials. The market cannot count on just a select few (i.e. AAPL) leading this charge much longer. There needs to be more broad based … [visit site to read more] Gold, Small Caps And The US Dollar Look Ready To Part Ways November 9, 2009 at 2:01 pm Gold, small caps and the U.S. dollar have had a stable three-way relationship for the better part of the 2009 rally. Now the three could be parting ways. Dr. Marc Faber is one of the few market wise men whose thoughts are worth pondering. His monthly “Gloom, Boom & Doom Report” is always a good read. He is an active, Asia-based investor with decades of experience, hundreds of millions under management, and many prescient calls under his belt. Faber has stated firmly and clearly … [visit site to read more] The BLS Admits A Big Mistake November 9, 2009 at 1:42 pm I checked the currencies last night, as is my tradition of taking a peek at the Japanese open… And the dollar was getting sold. I thought to myself… “I bet G-20 got things going here!” And then this morning, when I turned on the currency screens, I saw that the dollar really got sold overnight, and in the morning session of Europe. The Big Dog, euro (EUR) is flirting with 1.50 again, the Aussie dollar (AUD) is flirting with 93-cents, and the Swiss franc (CHF) is not only flirting, … [visit site to read more] Video: 11/09 Dollar Slides To Start The Week November 9, 2009 at 1:11 pm A lack of economic data and the G20’s failure to address the greenbacks recewnt slide had paved the way for a continued decline for the US dollar to begin the week. … [visit site to read more] What If The Social Fabric Of America Tears? November 9, 2009 at 1:01 pm I have written before about what academics call anchoring, or expectations. My previous post was about the anchoring of inflationary expectations. This time, it’s about the social fabric of America, which is far more important. The American Dream The mythic story of America has been the American Dream. America has long held to be the Land of Opportunity, where people like Michael Dell could build an empire by selling computers out of his college dorm. How much unravelling can the … [visit site to read more] Video: 11/09 All Attention Still Remains On Unemployment Figures November 9, 2009 at 12:58 pm Floor trader Doreen Mogavero discusses the recent market upswing and shares her thoughts about the upcoming holiday season and what it means for the markets. … [visit site to read more] Why Muni Bond ETFs Are Appealing Now November 9, 2009 at 12:01 pm After suffering through steep losses last year, municipal bonds and related exchange traded funds (ETFs) have been riding the wave of investment interest in the bonds sector. Municipal bond mutual funds increased 14.4% on average through Oct. 29 and yields have not experienced their current lows in more than four decades, reports Jonathan Burton for The Wall Street Journal. The surge in muni bonds may be over, but some believe this investment vehicle still have a place in many … [visit site to read more] Massive Revolutionary Changes And Their Consequences November 9, 2009 at 11:31 am I’ve just returned from Munich, Germany, where Claus Vogt and I addressed the 8th Annual Conference of Sicheres Geld subscribers. Here are the highlights of my side of the presentation. (Claus will give you his side in a future issue). Massive Revolutionary Changes A few years ago, when we first began this journey together, we warned that the U.S. government was leading us to a future banking panic. We warned about the housing bubble that was about to burst. We told you … [visit site to read more] Video: 11/09 International Sales Lift McDonald's October Sales Growth November 9, 2009 at 11:19 am Strong sales overseas helped offset mostly flat domestic sales during the month of October for McDonald’s, which saw total sales rise 10.3% globally. … [visit site to read more] Australian Dollar: The Downside Prevails November 9, 2009 at 11:10 am Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more] Canadian Dollar: Caution November 9, 2009 at 11:10 am Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more] Health Care Reform Or Merely Another Wealth Redistribution Program? November 9, 2009 at 10:50 am Why is an ever increasing percentage of the American public getting angry? In my opinion, more and more Americans are not only questioning but now realizing that they are largely disenfranchised. How so? Seemingly each and every program emanating from Washington is merely another form of income and wealth redistribution. Make no mistake the redistribution is running in both directions, that is, to the large monied interests on Wall Street and those who are increasingly dependent on … [visit site to read more] Video: 11/09 Green Start In Asia November 9, 2009 at 10:37 am The week got off to a great start in the Asia/Pacific regiion as each major index posted a gain to close out the first session of the week. … [visit site to read more] Video: 11/09 NYSE Opening Bell Market Monitor: MCD, KFT November 9, 2009 at 10:35 am The latest in news, commentary, and information on what’s moving the US equities markets. Watch this broadcast LIVE at 9:30 AM EST daily @ “http://www.nyx.com/marketmonitor” … [visit site to read more] US Bank Failure Tally Hits 120 So Far This Year November 9, 2009 at 10:31 am Regulators shut down 5 more banks in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri and California; tally hits 120 so far this year U.S. regulators on Friday shuttered five more institutions in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri and California , as the recession continues to take its toll on banks. This takes the total number to 120, compared to 25 in 2008 and 3 in 2007. As the industry has to tolerate bad loans that were made during the credit explosion, the trouble in the banking … [visit site to read more] There Remains Little Obstacle On The Horizon To Halt The US Dollar Sell-Off November 9, 2009 at 10:15 am As another weekend G20 meeting has passed without comment on FX and with continued commitment to maintaining stimulus, the USD has slid appreciably against the majors and gold. The shock headline on Friday that US unemployment hit 10.2% initially sent investors scrambling for the exit of risk-correlated trades, with gold plunging and EURUSD skidding precariously towards downside support. However, once the knee-jerk alarm bells subsided and rational thought regained the upper hand, markets … [visit site to read more] Swiss Franc: The Downside Prevails November 9, 2009 at 10:10 am Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more] Japanese Yen: Under Pressure November 9, 2009 at 10:10 am Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more] British Pound: The Downside Prevails November 9, 2009 at 10:10 am Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more] Euro: Under Pressure November 9, 2009 at 10:10 am Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more] Chart Of The Week: US Unemployment Rates And Education November 9, 2009 at 10:01 am While I have a bias in favor of using home grown charts for my chart of the week, this week one chart in particular stuck in my head, the chart below from EconomPic Data that compares recent changes in the relative level of unemployment to the overall unemployment rate. It may take a moment for readers to get their bearings on this graph, but in essence it shows that one’s level of education has increasingly become a factor in the likelihood of being unemployed. A decade or so ago, the … [visit site to read more] Stock Market News: Kraft Formalizing Cadbury Bid For $16.7 Billion; Goldman Sachs Upgrades Adobe System To 'Buy' November 9, 2009 at 9:55 am Kraft (KFT) is due to formalize its Cadbury (CBY) bid for about $16.7 billion as the deadline for an offer hits Northrop Grumman (NOC) announced it is selling its TASC consulting operations to two private equity firms for $1.65 billion About $30 billion was the agreed-to valuation which General Electric (GE) and Comcast (CMCSA) placed on the joint venture between NBC Universal and Comcast Goldman Sachs (GS) upgraded Adobe Systems (ADBE) to “buy,” and lifted its price … [visit site to read more] Sun Microsystems' Earnings Beat Estimates, Sales Down November 9, 2009 at 9:51 am Sun Microsystems, Inc. (JAVA) reported results for the first quarter of fiscal 2010 in an SEC filing. Lower operating expenses and higher gross margin helped the company lower its first quarter GAAP loss to $120 million, or 16 cents per share from a loss of $1.68 billion or $2.24 per share reported in the year-ago period and beating the Zacks Consensus estimate of a loss of 23 cents per share. Earnings on a non-GAAP basis (excluding one-time items) rose to 2 cents per share in the quarter … [visit site to read more] US Double Dip Recession Highly Likely November 9, 2009 at 9:43 am Unemployment has now passed 10%. You can add another 7.5% on to that figure if you include Americans who have given up looking for work. But risky assets are still rallying, though the volatility has picked up in recent sessions. So have equity markets gone too far too quickly? Of course we will only now retrospectively, in around 18 months after the 08/09 recessionary dust has settled. But in six months the Fed will start increasing rates and will certainly aggressively withdraw its … [visit site to read more]   This email was sent to gatdemit001@gmail.com.  Create Your Account Don't want to receive this feed any longer? Unsubscribe here.