Wednesday 18 November 2009

11/18 Daily Markets

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6 Reasons For You To Own Gold
November 17, 2009 at 11:03 pm

Richard Russell has identified six reasons for why the price of gold is likely to head higher. Here’s a highlight from each of the explanations…

1. With interest rates near zero there’s basically no opportunity cost to choosing to buy gold over Treasuries.

2. The Fed is going to keep building debt, and will eventually cause “world-wide central bank inflation as the banks seek to devalue their money in an effort to keep the dollar strong.”

3. In a departure from their usual … [visit site to read more]



Singapore Stock Market: Focus On Bank Stocks
November 17, 2009 at 11:01 pm

The STI opened up 8.72 points at 2773.67 as supported by continued firmness for the US stocks.
After 2 months of upward momentum - up 1.2% in August and 2.9% in September - Singapore’s non oil domestic exports stumbled in October and fell sharply. The drop has caused the STI  to back off from its 66-week peak yesterday with profit-taking setting in.
U.S. News Updates
U.S. stocks gained for a third day as a rebound in metal prices boosted commodity producers, overshadowing a … [visit site to read more]



Silver Cycles, Silver-to-Gold Ratio, And The US Dollar Index Analysis
November 17, 2009 at 10:01 pm

In the last several days I received many letters in which Readers commentend on my analysis of the seasonality on the silver market (thank you), so I decided to provide you with more detailed analysis of silver in the following essay.

I will begin with a reply to the letter from a Subscriber, who mentions that „the 30 year seasonal charts for silver show Nov to be a higher drop, but the 15 year seasonal chart shows the trend to have changed”. The question is which seasonal tendencies one … [visit site to read more]



Video: 11/18 Pre-Market: U.S. Inflation And Housing Data
November 17, 2009 at 10:01 pm

The stories,data, and stocks that may have the greatest impact during the next trading session. … [visit site to read more]



The Biggest Threat To America's Relationship With China
November 17, 2009 at 9:01 pm

The continually weak U.S. dollar is a constant source of debate among economists and the media.

And most of the chatter is decidedly negative. But there are a few benefits, including the effect it has on the bloated U.S. trade deficit. Both economists and the U.S. government are hoping that such dollar weakness will help reduce the nation’s trade deficit, one of the most criticized aspects of the U.S. economy.

Sure enough, during the recession, America’s trade deficit with many other … [visit site to read more]



Stock Picks For Wednesday: Research In Motion And Macy's
November 17, 2009 at 8:43 pm

( click to enlarge )

Macy’s (M) - From my point of view I think the stock may break down here. M is slowly but steadily coming down on each passing day. Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Distribution. The stock closed fractionaly above the major support at $17.46, but any close below this level could have further negative implications for the stock, and a move to $17 cannot be ruled. At this stage the stock is still trading below both 20 day and 50 day moving … [visit site to read more]



Goldman Sachs CEO Issues Unspecified Apology, But Sorry Isn't Enough. We Need The Specifics
November 17, 2009 at 8:34 pm

Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein

Mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa . . .

It is not everyday that the head of a major Wall Street bank issues an unsolicited and unspecified apology. In fact, in my 23 years on Wall Street I do not ever recall a Wall Street CEO issuing an apology in the manner that Lloyd Blankfein did today. What did Blankfein say? From a Bloomberg report, Goldman, Buffett Establish $500 Million Small-Business Program:
Blankfein, speaking at a conference today … [visit site to read more]



GBP/USD Retesting 50% Retracement
November 17, 2009 at 8:19 pm

The GBP/USD pair is once again trading on the 50% retracement of the entire move lower from the summer of 2008. On the chart below we see the pair has been at this level during the summer and again this fall, however the price action has pushed the pair lower all three times.

The higher than expected inflation readings (higher CPI) out of the UK last night certainly helped the pound initially, but once again the pair has pulled … [visit site to read more]



Mortgage Delinquencies Still Rising In The US
November 17, 2009 at 8:18 pm

Tuesday morning Trans Union, the big credit bureau, released its quarterly report on mortgage delinquencies, and it was not pretty. Nationwide, 6.25% of all residential mortgages were at least 60 days past due in the third quarter, up from 5.81% in the second quarter and 3.96% a year ago. This was the 11th straight quarter that delinquencies increased.

Mortgage delinquencies are the first step in a house eventually going into foreclosure, so look for those to start heading up again. … [visit site to read more]



US Dollar Manages To Hold Onto Gains
November 17, 2009 at 8:15 pm

The U.S. Dollar managed to close higher today despite late session attempts in New York to erase earlier gains. This is strong evidence that most of today’s rally was due to short-covering rather than fresh buying. Comments from ECB President Trichet were supposed to show support for Bernanke’s comments from yesterday, but actually helped ignite the rally in the Dollar. Technically, the Dollar is oversold on the daily chart. This is another reason for the up move today.
The EUR USD … [visit site to read more]



Options Terminology: The Differences Between In, At And Out-Of-The-Money
November 17, 2009 at 8:01 pm

To put it bluntly, some people are just downright afraid of the options market.

It’s too bad. Most believe the popular misconceptions and myths about options - among them, that they’re too complex, too confusing and too risky - or are just reluctant to the leave the relative comfort zone of stock investing.

It’s also a mistake. Many investors are missing out on some huge gains when all it really takes is a better understanding about the options landscape.

And that’s what I’m here … [visit site to read more]



Could Japan Be The Catalyst For A Stronger US Dollar?
November 17, 2009 at 7:03 pm

As the obsession with the “falling dollar” continues we have been scouring the globe for a catalyst to stop the decline. Last week, Fitch warned Japan that if government spending is not curtailed it faced a ratings downgrade.

Japanese debt as a percentage of GDP is already the highest in the G7 at over 180%, and the IMF estimates it could rise to 227%. The risk is that a debt downgrade could cause borrowing costs to rise and curb investment. The new Japanese government is in a tricky … [visit site to read more]



New Natural Gas ETF Expected To Begin Trading Wednesday
November 17, 2009 at 7:02 pm

United States Commodity Funds recently won regulatory approval for its newest addition: a 12-month natural gas exchange traded fund (ETF). The fund is expected to begin trading tomorrow.

The U.S. 12 Month Natural Gas Fund (NYSEArca: UNL) has gotten the green light from regulators to issue about 30 million shares, which will purchase natural gas futures for delivery over the next 12 months. Asjylyn Loder for Bloomberg reports that it will sell the near-month contract as it approaches … [visit site to read more]



Lazard Puts Future In M&A With New CEO
November 17, 2009 at 7:01 pm

In a signal of confidence for the future of mergers-and-acquisitions (M&A), Lazard Ltd. (LAZ) appointed Kenneth Jacobs as its chairman and chief executive officer following the unexpected death of famed dealmaker Bruce Wasserstein.

Jacobs, a 21-year company veteran, was most recently CEO of Lazard North America and has a history of leading M&A advisory teams.

“Jacobs is clearly qualified for the position because he has run the North American operations of the company,” Dick … [visit site to read more]



As India Recovers, What's The Next Step For Its ETFs
November 17, 2009 at 7:01 pm

India’s economy has made such strides this year that it may be the first to begin scaling back its stimulus measures. These definitive signs of recovery in the emerging nation could continue to spill over into the strong performance of its exchange traded funds (ETFs).

The Indian government hinted at winding up fiscal stimulus initiatives and cutting back on loose monetary policies, writes Arun Prabhudesai for Track.in. Demand has been on the rebound and the benchmark inflation index … [visit site to read more]



Intel Raises Dividend By 12.5%
November 17, 2009 at 6:15 pm

Intel Corp (INTC) raised the quarterly cash dividend by 12.5%, totaling 63 cents a share in 2010. The dividend yield comes to 3.1%.

The company has been paying a cash dividend for the last 17 years and has raised the dividend 14 times since it started.

Intel has over $8 billion of net cash on its balance sheet, or around $1.58 a share. The $1.25 billion payment to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) will take another 23 cents a share off the cash balance.

The remaining cash ($1.35 a … [visit site to read more]



Can Gold And Other Precious Metals Keep On Flying?
November 17, 2009 at 6:15 pm

Are you sold on gold? The precious metal outperformed every major equity index in the world in 2008. The question is, can gold-and other precious metals-keep on flying? Or would buying today be buying high and selling low?

Precious metals have always been intriguing to investors because they tend to hold their value. In times of geopolitical crisis or currency devaluation, for example, the value of paper money might fluctuate, but a hard asset will always be worth something. As a … [visit site to read more]



Cartoon: Wall Street Circus
November 17, 2009 at 6:01 pm

Source: John Darkow, Comics.com, November 13, … [visit site to read more]



Fed Preparing Unorthodox Exit Strategy For Its Stimulus Programs
November 17, 2009 at 5:57 pm

The U.S. Federal Reserve may take an unorthodox approach to raising interest rates by paying interest on bank reserves rather than relying on traditional open market remedies, as it exits from its long-term fiscal stimulus programs, Reuters reported today (Tuesday).

Paying interest on reserves is mostly untested and would represent an unexpected twist in the Fed’s response to the financial meltdown.

“In the old days … the Fed controlled the federal funds rate with open market … [visit site to read more]



Gold In The Face Of The Fiat Fallout
November 17, 2009 at 5:47 pm

Gold hit a new record yesterday. The price rose $22.50 to $1,139.

And today we take up a foul and disagreeable task. We ask ourselves: what if we are wrong?

If you bought gold when we first recommended it, ten years ago, you are in a very comfortable position. Gold sells for more than 4 times as much today. But what should you do now? And what if you didn’t go for broke on gold in the early ’00s? Is it too late to get in on the bull market?

To give you a warning, in the following … [visit site to read more]



The World's Biggest Players Are Buying Gold
November 17, 2009 at 5:01 pm

Central banks are net buyers of gold for first time in 22 years…

Precious-metals research firm GFMS reports central banks around the world bought more gold in the second quarter than they sold for the first time since 1987. And consider this:

Amount of gold France will sell this year: zero
Amount of gold Germany will sell this year: zero
Amount of gold Switzerland will sell this year: zero

So let’s get this straight: China and Russia are buying gold, several European … [visit site to read more]



Video: 11/17 "Always Coca-Cola"… Just Not At Costco
November 17, 2009 at 4:58 pm

Wholesale club operator Costco announced Monday that it will no longer carry Coca-Cola products until a pricing dispute reaches a resolution. … [visit site to read more]



Video: 11/17 NYSE Closing Bell Market Monitor: TGT, KSS, HD
November 17, 2009 at 4:57 pm

The latest in news, commentary, and information on what’s moving the US equities markets. Watch this broadcast LIVE at 4:00 pm EST daily @ “http://www.nyx.com/marketmonitor” … [visit site to read more]



Video: 11/17 Oil Prices Flat On Mixed Data
November 17, 2009 at 4:55 pm

Front month crude prices traded mostly flat this session on mixed signals. … [visit site to read more]



Video: 11/17 Market Has Been Dollar-Related
November 17, 2009 at 4:20 pm

Floor trader David Henderson expresses how the markets recent moves have all been tied to the volatility in the US dollar. … [visit site to read more]



A Strong US Dollar Policy - The Time Has Come
November 17, 2009 at 4:01 pm

Is this American’s bargain.  We’ll devalue the dollar, but let your 401k grow in value ?   Seems to be.  In case you haven’t noticed lately, the US dollar is becoming “worth less” on a daily basis.  It is declining in value and it seems to be a gradual controlled decline.  It’s obviously a strategy of the US Government.  Their hope is that the dollar will become so cheap, that eventually our goods and services will appear cheap on international markets.  If this occurs, they hope, … [visit site to read more]



Video: 11/17 Sensex Rises On Software Exporters
November 17, 2009 at 3:09 pm

India’s BSE Sensex index was the only major Asian/Pacific market to post a gain this session following a rise in software exporting companies. … [visit site to read more]



Fighting Soaring College Costs
November 17, 2009 at 3:01 pm

I’ve talked a lot about soaring costs for many of our biggest needs and wants - energy, health care, food, and more.

But if you have kids or grandkids, you’re probably aware of another major expenditure that keeps going up no matter how weak the broad economy is: The price of a college education.

The College Board’s latest survey came out a couple weeks ago, showing that tuition and fees at private 4-year schools rose 4.4 percent in the current school year to $26,273.

Meanwhile, … [visit site to read more]



An Introduction To Stock Options
November 17, 2009 at 2:01 pm

Today we’re going to talk about what an Option is, and the two different kinds of options: Calls and Puts.

First, consider this scenario: you want to buy this really badass necklace. However, you’re not sure how much it’s worth. The vendor is trying to charge you one-thousand dollars, but you tell him that the necklace isn’t worth nearly that much. “You’re wrong,” the vendor says, “this necklace is enchanted!” The vendor claims that the necklace will give you good luck. He also says the … [visit site to read more]



Video: 11/17 Market Movers: AMAT, SMTL, AGO, PSUN, XOM, BCS, BT
November 17, 2009 at 1:11 pm

The latest news and information on U.S. stocks that are moving the market. … [visit site to read more]



Obama, China, And Wishful Thinking About American Jobs
November 17, 2009 at 1:01 pm

President Obama says he wants to “rebalance” the economic relationship between China and the U.S. as part of his plan to restart the American jobs machine. “We cannot go back,” he said in September, “to an era where the Chinese . . . just are selling everything to us, we’re taking out a bunch of credit-card debt or home equity loans, but we’re not selling anything to them.” He hopes that hundreds of millions of Chinese consumers will make up for the inability of American consumers to … [visit site to read more]



Video: 11/17 Risk Aversion Resurfaces
November 17, 2009 at 12:55 pm

Risk aversion dominated trade this session as investors continued to stay away from higher-yielding assets on weak economic data. … [visit site to read more]



PIMCO Set To Launch Money Market Alternative ETF
November 17, 2009 at 12:15 pm

Exchange traded fund (ETF) provider and bond giant PIMCO is launching a new fund today that’s billed as being a “higher-yielding alternative to money market funds.”

PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Strategy Fund (MINT) is an actively managed ETF that will primarily invest in short duration investment-grade debt securities.

The portfolio’s average duration varies, depending on PIMCO’s economic forecasts and active investment process decisions. Normally, though, maturities will not … [visit site to read more]



Bribing Consumers To Save The Economy
November 17, 2009 at 12:01 pm

The US now has the highest unemployment rate of all major economies. Even France - historically, an economy with high jobless rates - is at 9.5% unemployment, while the US is 10.2%.

As for inflation, the lowest inflation rate among the world’s larger economies is in - you guess it - Japan. After 20 years of on-again, off-again deflation, it’s on again in Japan…with inflation at NEGATIVE 2.2%. But inflation is negative in the US too - at minus 1.3%.

Both Japan and the US claim … [visit site to read more]



Target's Earnings Top Estimates
November 17, 2009 at 12:01 pm

Target Corporation (TGT) recently reported better-than-expected third-quarter 2009 results.

Net earnings for the quarter jumped 18.4% year-over-year to $436 million, on the heels of a 5.5% decline in credit card expenses, an 18.3% fall in net interest expense, and lower effective tax rate (36.1% in the quarter as against 41.7% in the prior-year quarter).

Target’s quarterly earnings of 58 cents a share outdid the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 49 cents. Earnings for the quarter rose … [visit site to read more]



Stock Market Movers: SunPower Corp, Assured Guaranty, Sina Corp
November 17, 2009 at 11:57 am

SPWRA - SunPower Corp. - Shares of the manufacturer of solar power products are down more than 17% this morning to $22.49 on news the firm may have to correct millions of dollars in accounting mistakes over the past three quarters. Investor uncertainty, as measured by option implied volatility, surged 31.73% to 66.89%. Option traders exchanged more than 19,200 contracts on the stock by 10:10 am (EDT). Fresh put positions were initiated at the November 22.5 and November 20 strike prices.

AGO … [visit site to read more]



Bernanke Digs Up Some Old Words
November 17, 2009 at 11:48 am

What a ride yesterday for the currencies! Gold? Well, at one point gold had shot up $24 on the day! It topped out at $1,142… The shiny metal then gave some back on profit taking, but gold holders have got to love it! Those who keep waiting for a pullback. Well, they might still be waiting when the cows come home.

Yesterday, we had a couple of Fed Heads talking, but the Big Kahuna stood out and moved the markets with his statements… Here’s the skinny…

Big Ben was giving a … [visit site to read more]



Bank Of America Continues CEO Hunt
November 17, 2009 at 11:47 am

Recently, William Demchak of the PNC Financial Services (PNC) was offered the position of the next CEO of the Bank of America (BAC). However, the offer was turned down by Demchak.

We suspect Demchak declined the offer as the pay package is likely to be among the least competitive in the industry, especially since the Obama administration’s pay czar took the axe to seven institutions’ pay plans, chopping the average high-end salary by 50%. Moreover, the bank is also operating under … [visit site to read more]



Bernanke Underscores Geithner's US Dollar Policy
November 17, 2009 at 11:43 am

Maybe Fed chairman Bernanke’s mention of the level of the dollar was unconventional when he addressed the Economic Club of New York on Monday, but it was very much in line with what treasury secretary Geithner has been saying all along. On the one hand the government understands the fact that the nation and its international fan base benefits when the dollar is potent. On the other hand the cataclysmic events of the past two years have been a real game-changer. In order to address the … [visit site to read more]



Kifin Makes Bid For Minerva plc
November 17, 2009 at 11:20 am

One of my main trading shares this year has been Minerva plc. A UK property developer whose share price got mauled in the collapse of last year and this. However, Minerva was and is building top quality office space in the City of London which will always attract premium pricing.

I had Minerva from last year in a small way, figuring it was very oversold and that Kifin, a South African stake builder, might bid. I held in April through the stock market collapse and topped up. Over the … [visit site to read more]



Producer Price Index Tame
November 17, 2009 at 11:20 am

In September, the Producer Price Index rose by 0.3%. While this is an acceleration from the 0.6% decline in September, it is well below consensus expectations of a 0.5% increase.

All of the price pressures were coming from food and energy. If they are stripped out to get the Core Producer Price Index, prices fell by 0.6% for the month — a much faster decline than the 0.1% decline last month, and even farther below the consensus expectations of a 0.1% increase for the month. Both food … [visit site to read more]



Bernanke Frets About The US Dollar
November 17, 2009 at 11:16 am

I wrote yesterday I thought markets had focused on the positive on Friday and that appears to have been even more the case overnight. To be fair, yesterday’s 1.2% QoQ rise in Japanese GDP in Q3 was a positive surprise (although this still leaves output down 4.5% YoY). But I wasn’t overly impressed with the stronger than expected 1.4% MoM gain in US retail sales in October, coming as it did after a revised 2.3% MoM decline in September (previously reported as a 1.5% mom decline). Ex-auto … [visit site to read more]



Australian Dollar: Caution
November 17, 2009 at 11:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



Canadian Dollar: Caution
November 17, 2009 at 11:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



USD/CHF Moves Higher Above Trendline Resistance
November 17, 2009 at 11:05 am

The USDCHF has moved through trendline resistance on the daily chart at the 1.0164 level. This has been upside channel support  of the move down from the summer. There was a break higher intraday on November 3rd, but that move was quickly reversed.  The move above today will be watched. Look for buyers against the level now.

On the topside, the 1.0200 level should provide some resistance but real resistance does not show up until 1.0286 where there is a ceiling … [visit site to read more]



Stock Market Briefs: Home Depot Beats Estimates, Berkshire Doubles Walmart Holdings
November 17, 2009 at 10:57 am

Home Depot (HD) topped estimates by a nickel as earnings for the third quarter reached 41 cents, on inline revenues of $16.36 billion, down 8%. Comparable sales fell 6.9%. The company issued 2010 guidance of $1.55, slightly ahead of $1.53 projections. According to the firm, “There is still a great deal of pressure in the housing and home improvement markets, though there are some positive signs of stabilization.”
ExxonMobil (XOM) shares were upgraded to “overweight” at Barclays … [visit site to read more]



Video: 11/17 NYSE Opening Bell Market Monitor: HD, TGT, SKS
November 17, 2009 at 10:52 am

The latest in news, commentary, and information on what’s moving the US equities markets. … [visit site to read more]



EUR/USD Tests Target Support And Bounces As Market Consolidates
November 17, 2009 at 10:41 am

As per this mornings commentary (click here to listen to the report), the EURUSD had target support down at the 1.4846 area. This level was the level the market gapped up from on November 9th (see chart above).  The market tends to remember key levels like this even though the gap has already been filled.

The price dipped down to a low of 1.4848.  This level will continue to be a level of support, with a break targeting the 1.4821 to 1.4824 level which was the low from last … [visit site to read more]



Stocks To Watch Tuesday
November 17, 2009 at 10:36 am

Speculative players

CIEN - The stock in a short term breakout mode. Target $14 ( 50 dma )
S - The stock in a short term breakout mode. Target $4
RMBS - Chart looks Bullish in all time frames. Key resistance level $19.20.
PFE - Ready for a big move. Keep an eye for a possible breakout over $18.02
ENER - Multiple bottoms. Stochastic indicator began showing signs of reversal
AMAT - Stochastic indicator began showing signs of reversal.
CRIS - The stock in a short term breakout mode. … [visit site to read more]



Swiss Franc: The Downside Prevails
November 17, 2009 at 10:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]


 

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