11/19 Daily Markets

Please add updates@feedmyinbox.com to your address book to make sure you receive these messages in the future. Daily Markets - Your Views Make News SEC Filing Shows Warren Buffett Played It Safe Prior To His Burlington Northern Buyout November 18, 2009 at 11:15 pm Having gone “all in” on a U.S. economic recovery with his $44 billion acquisition of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (BNI), Warren Buffett showed a less aggressive stance in Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s (WMT) and ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM). The 13-F filing showed that as of Sept. 30 Berkshire had increased its Wal-Mart holdings by almost 90% over the summer, adding 18 million shares worth nearly $1 billion. Berkshire also jettisoned 7 million shares of ConocoPhillips (COP), while … [visit site to read more] The Effectiveness Of Fiscal And Monetary Stimulus In Depressions November 18, 2009 at 11:01 pm By Miguel Almunia, Agustín S. Bénétrix, Barry Eichengreen, Kevin H. O’Rourke, Gisela Rua There is one important source of information on the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal stimulus in an environment of near-zero interest rates, dysfunctional banking systems and heightened risk aversion that has not been fully exploited: the 1930s. This column gathers data on growth, budgets and central bank policy rates for 27 countries covering the period 1925-39 and shows that where fiscal … [visit site to read more] Bid For Cadbury Gets Sticky As Hershey & Italy's Ferrero Consider Offer November 18, 2009 at 10:31 pm Hershey Co. (HSY) and Italian-based confectioner Ferrero SpA are considering a possible bid for U.K. candy giant Cadbury PLC (CBRY), raising the potential for a costly bidding war. But should a battle take place, U.S. food giant Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) is still the odds-on favorite. Hershey, the maker of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups, said in a statement it’s “reviewing its options,” leaving open the door to an offer but not saying one would be forthcoming. Ferrero, the Italian maker of … [visit site to read more] Investing In Gold: The Easiest Way To Know Gold Is Not A Bubble Yet November 18, 2009 at 10:01 pm Gold has been on a tear. Gold has marched past $1100 an ounce and its strength is unmatched. The price of gold has only dipped two days in the month of November. The run, and the excitement surrounding it, has a lot of investors scared. But they shouldn’t be because… Gold’s run is nowhere near coming to an end. Granted, the strong rally has made gold one of the most talked about sectors in the world. More savers are discovering the value of owning gold every day. And more … [visit site to read more] Plunging US Dollar Erodes Non-US Investors' Returns November 18, 2009 at 9:01 pm With the US dollar falling down a precipice, spare a thought for non-US investors invested in US stocks and bonds. The graph below shows the performance of US 10-year Treasury Notes since the beginning of March in both US dollar terms (red line) and euro terms (blue line). Whereas US investors are showing a poor return of -2.8% for the period, European investors are completely under water to the tune of -17.5%. For the year to date the figures are -4.8% (US dollar) and -10.5% (euro). … [visit site to read more] US Dollar Loses Ground To Euro, But Finishes Mixed Against Others November 18, 2009 at 8:15 pm The EUR USD posted a sizable gain. Tuesday’s supportive comments from European Central Bank President Trichet were not enough to stop the Dollar’s slide today. Matters weren’t helped after Luxembourg premier Jean-Claude Juncker said that the Euro’s rally hasn’t hurt the Euro Zone recovery. This comment gave traders the green light to drive the currency higher. If upside momentum continues at the current pace, we could see a test of 1.5063 tomorrow. The GBP USD traded lower on Wednesday. … [visit site to read more] What Bull? Dow Is Down 83% In Terms Of Gold November 18, 2009 at 8:01 pm “I had no idea how bad it was,” my friend Richard Smith told me after crunching the numbers… Richard (founder of the excellent TradeStops) should know about crunching numbers… He has a Ph.D. in “mathematical systems theory.” I’m not sure what that Ph.D. actually means, but I do know Richard is able to take a massive pile of numbers and find a simple way to tell me what they mean. Here’s his simple conclusion: The entire rally in the DJIA from 2003 to the peak in 2008 was … [visit site to read more] Why Do We Need A Multi-Agency Financial Fraud Task Force? November 18, 2009 at 7:44 pm Should we take heart that the Obama administration is creating a multi-agency Financial Fraud Task Force? While there is no doubt there are massive frauds in the system, the mere creation of a task force does not necessarily mean the frauds will be rooted out. Why? If the agencies involved in the task force are themselves fundamentally and structurally flawed, then frauds will continue. If the agencies merely failed to execute or perform then perhaps this task force will expose those … [visit site to read more] Stock Picks For Thursday: DryShips And THQ November 18, 2009 at 7:31 pm ( click to enlarge ) DryShips (DRYS) traded up $0.08 on Wednesday, as the stock traded 2.5x normal daily volume. The stock is trading in a range over the past 2 months, and seems to want to move higher. Wednesday’s high of $7.30 is resistance for the next upside move. If the stock can break through this level, we should see a strong move. DRYS can be a good trading stock, so keep it on your radar for the next few days. ( click to enlarge ) THQ (THQI) - On the daily chart, … [visit site to read more] Is Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein A Liar? November 18, 2009 at 7:28 pm Yesterday I wrote “Just How Sorry Is Goldman Sachs?” in response to a blanket, unspecified, and unsolicited apology put forth by Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO Lloyd Blankfein. In my commentary, I asserted: Wait a second. Blankfein admits that Goldman participated in activities that led to the crisis? Get Lloyd back in here and ask him for specifics. In an attempt to probe as to Goldman’s culpability, I inquired: What do you think Blankfein was referring to when he stated that Goldman … [visit site to read more] The Great Disconnect Between Stocks And Jobs November 18, 2009 at 7:01 pm How can the stock market hit new highs at the same time unemployment is hitting new highs? Simple. The market is up because corporate earnings are up. Corporate earnings are up because companies are cutting costs. And the biggest single cost they’re cutting is their payrolls. So they let people go and, presto, their balance sheets look better and their stock prices rise. In the old-fashioned kind of recession decades ago, big companies laid off people with the expectation of rehiring … [visit site to read more] Real Estate Recovery In South California: Home Sales Increase 16th Straight Month November 18, 2009 at 7:01 pm Southern California home sales rose in October as prices showed more signs of firming. The median sale price fell by the smallest amount in two years, the result of a shrinking inventory of homes for sale and government and industry efforts to stoke demand and curtail foreclosures. Last month 22,132 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties. That was up 2.8% from 21,539 in September and also up … [visit site to read more] Hunger Is The Latest US Measure To Reach A Record High November 18, 2009 at 7:01 pm According to UN officials roughly one billion people, or 1 in 6 worldwide, are wrestling with hunger. With the downturn in the economy the US, one of the wealthiest countries in the world, isn’t faring any better. Data collected for 2008 shows that one out of every six Americans, for a total of 49 million people, “went hungry or had insufficient food at some point in 2008, the highest number since the government began tracking the problem in 1995.” The report from the US Department … [visit site to read more] Find America's Next Big Bankruptcy Here November 18, 2009 at 6:01 pm Last week, I was in the mountains of Argentina for the inauguration of Doug Casey’s real estate development, the Estancia de Cafayate. It was a week full of cocktail parties, golf tournaments… and unconventional ideas. In between all the fun, I attended a small, private investment conference. The only speakers were Rick Rule, Doug Casey, Bill Bonner, and Porter Stansberry. Porter gave the best speech. He presented a compelling argument that one of the largest companies in America … [visit site to read more] Video: NYSE Closing Bell Market Monitor: BJ, WDC, CHS November 18, 2009 at 5:32 pm The latest in news, commentary, and information on what’s moving the US equities markets. Watch this broadcast LIVE at 4:00 pm EST daily @ “http://www.nyx.com/marketmonitor” … [visit site to read more] Video: Oil Prices Steady November 18, 2009 at 5:32 pm Front month crude prices remained steady this session as a decline in inventories clashed with a decline in energy demand. … [visit site to read more] Video: Mortgage Delinquency Rates Continue To RIse November 18, 2009 at 5:31 pm Credit reporting agency TransUnion announced Monday that the overall delinquency rate for mortgages continued to rise for the quarter. … [visit site to read more] Bailouts And Moral Hazard November 18, 2009 at 5:01 pm Notes made for remarks to the Federalist Society on November 13, 2009 It’s an honor to be on this panel with all these distinguished people. But I’m afraid I was invited because I’m considered soft on bailouts. That’s a terrible reputation to have. What is it they say about poker? “If you look around the table and you can’t tell who the sucker is, it’s you.” The case for bailouts is usually systemic risk. You do it, not for the bailout-ee, but to limit the collateral damage, damage … [visit site to read more] ETFs vs. Mutual Funds: 5 Reasons ETFs Are Better November 18, 2009 at 4:01 pm While mutual funds have had a long and successful run, exchange traded funds (ETFs) are encroaching upon territories that used to belong to mutual funds. Does this mean investors see ETFs as a better investment option? An ETF is a basket of securities that represents a specific sector, region or specific index. ETFs are like mutual funds in that respect, but ETFs trade throughout the day like a stock. They are priced and traded continually, and they provide transparency, liquidity, and … [visit site to read more] Video: 11/18 FX Options Report November 18, 2009 at 3:14 pm The USD fell against the EUR, but pared earlier losses. The major U.S. equity averages saw a modest decline, on weak home construction data. … [visit site to read more] Overvalued Stocks: Don't Touch These Bloated Investments With A 10-Foot Pole November 18, 2009 at 3:01 pm To celebrate my parents’ anniversary, I took the family to see Grease last weekend. As musical theater buffs, I figured that they’d love the seeing the show, especially with my kids who had never seen a Broadway quality production. Unfortunately, they still haven’t. The show stunk. The “actor” who played Danny Zuko couldn’t act. And American Idol winner Taylor Hicks was so bad as Teen Angel, it was laughable. It was one of the worst productions I’ve ever seen - and I should know, as … [visit site to read more] Two Forces Pushing Gold Higher November 18, 2009 at 2:01 pm When gold broke out of a triangle formation in early September, a technical buying signal was generated. I discussed this bullish signal in my Money and Markets column and told readers that a move to new all-time highs had probably begun. Hence, I strongly recommended gold. A few weeks later gold gave another buying signal. This one was even more important than the first, because gold had entered new high ground. As you can see on the weekly chart below, gold broke out of a huge … [visit site to read more] Video: Market Movers: CHS, MBI, RDN November 18, 2009 at 1:55 pm The latest news and information on U.S. stocks that are moving the market. … [visit site to read more] Anther False Dawn For The US Dollar November 18, 2009 at 1:01 pm There was plenty of excitement surrounding the US Dollar yesterday afternoon as it looked to be closing with a technically bullish chart pattern. Despite this, gold continued the journey higher. At times, the Dollar move looked to be at odds with other markets; equities were quietly holding the higher ground and gold never relinquished more than a few Dollars from its high. In recent days the other side of that equation has been a weaker Dollar, but this time the greenback made gains … [visit site to read more] Video: Housing Figures Weaken The Dollar November 18, 2009 at 12:55 pm The US dollar continued to slide this session after weak housing data and beliefs that the Fed will not raise its rates soon helped keep investors away from the greenback. … [visit site to read more] Gold Hits Psychological $1150/oz Level November 18, 2009 at 12:25 pm Gold is continuing its incessant rise higher despite very limited participation from the Dollar.  The EUR/USD and AUD/USD are both fluctuating between their respective uptrend and downtrend lines while the S&P futures hover around their highly psychological 1100 level.  Gold has ignored its usual positive correlations since breaking through its psychological $1100/oz level and seems to have a mind of its own.  Gold’s aggressive bull movements without a sizable depreciation of the … [visit site to read more] Gaming Housing Statistics Or Time Reveals Truth November 18, 2009 at 12:22 pm Time reveals truth. I love that pearl of wisdom shared by Danielle Park, my guest this past Sunday evening on No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle. I find it very applicable to the economic report released this morning on housing starts. What did that report indicate? Housing starts in October registered a supposed surprising decline of 10.6% to a seasonally adjusted 529, 000 annual rate. Is this truly a surprise? Market analysts and government pundits who continually … [visit site to read more] US Housing Starts, Permits Plunge - How Will That Affect The Economy And Employment? November 18, 2009 at 12:11 pm In October, Housing Starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of just 529,000, a 10.6% decline from September and down 30.7% from a year ago.  That puts housing starts at their lowest level since April, and takes a lot of steam out of the incipient economic recovery. Most of the damage, however, came in the very volatile apartment and condo area. Starts in buildings with five or more units dropped to their lowest level yet in this cycle at an annualized rate of just … [visit site to read more] It's All About The Commodity Currencies November 18, 2009 at 12:05 pm The currencies gave back all that ground they gained the day before on Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride, yesterday… But, have turned around this morning in the European session as Eurozone stocks are up, and whenever equities trade with some zip in their step, it has been good for the Big Dog, euro (EUR)… Someone asked me yesterday a question about the euro… He said, “Chuck, I know you like the euro, but couldn’t the Aussie dollar (AUD) be a better choice going forward?” And I answered like … [visit site to read more] Stock Market Movers: Autodesk, Bunge Limited, SLM Corp November 18, 2009 at 12:01 pm BG - Bunge Limited - Call activity on the global agribusiness and food company is likely inspired by the 2.5% increase in shares to $60.36 today. Investors traded call options in excess of existing open interest at a number of strike prices across several contracts. The now in-the-money November 60 strike had 3,750 calls exchanged, whereas the higher December 65 strike had 3,100 calls traded as of 10:10 am (EDT). Finally, volume at the January 70 strike exceeded 4,000 calls on previous open … [visit site to read more] Euro Stronger At The US Dollar's Expense November 18, 2009 at 11:30 am Fundamentals The Euro is higher ahead of this morning’s housing starts number, which may provide a boost for equities. The pan-European currency has found itself the beneficiary of traders shunning the lower yielding reserve currencies - the Yen and Dollar. Investors have become more vocal with their concerns about swelling budget deficits and elevated levels of liquidity as a result of government interventionism. Now that economic conditions around the globe have shown significant … [visit site to read more] US Dollar Shoved To The Side As Risk-Aversion Falters November 18, 2009 at 11:26 am While the dollar managed to bully everything else lower on Tuesday especially after risk was discouraged by a poor showing from a gauge of homebuilders’ confidence, today it is once again on the defensive. The euro’s recovery has lifted it to a session high of $1.4972 ahead of Wednesday’s key homebuilding and consumer price reports. Ironically, analysts are seeking a boost to new home starts driven largely by government tax credits. If the data can carry the weight of expectations, it’s likely … [visit site to read more] Video: NYSE Opening Bell Market Monitor: BJ, CHS, HSY November 18, 2009 at 11:15 am The latest in news, commentary, and information on what’s moving the US equities markets. … [visit site to read more] As TARP Expires Will Geithner 'Walk The Walk?' November 18, 2009 at 11:12 am Do you have any confidence that Washington even knows how to properly address our massive and growing fiscal deficit? Rahm Emanuel, Tim Geithner and others understand that from a political standpoint they need to start talking about deficit control, but will that talk lead to action? Do you think Congressional leaders, specifically Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, have the character and fortitude to 'tighten the belt?’ The first real test for this crowd is already upon us. How so? The … [visit site to read more] Australian Dollar: Caution November 18, 2009 at 11:10 am Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more] Canadian Dollar: Caution November 18, 2009 at 11:10 am Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more] Investment News Briefs: Chinese President Silent On Currency, Talks That Playboy Is On The Market, GM Could Layoff 10,000 Employees November 18, 2009 at 11:02 am Hu Silent on Yuan; Troubled U.S. Banks May Get Chinese Bailout; SEC Sanctions Doubled in Last Fiscal Year; October PPI Gains; Playboy CFO Quits Amid Talk of Buyout; U.S. Home Builders Still Discouraged; GM Could Lay Off Up to 10,000 European Workers; Costco Stops Coke Product Orders Over Price Dispute As expected, U.S. President Barack Obama yesterday (Tuesday) in a summit with Chinese President Hu Jintao urged Chinese policymakers to let the yuan appreciate. “I was pleased to note … [visit site to read more] Stock Market Briefs: Microsft Shares Rise On Morgan Stanley, UBS Recomendation, Saks Reports Surprise Profit November 18, 2009 at 10:56 am TJX (TJX) posted a larger-than-anticipated profit as demand for discounted consumer products continued. The firm said it sees fourth-quarter earnings of 65 cents to 71 cents a share from continuing operations Saks (SKS) reported a surprise quarterly profit Microsoft (MSFT) shares rose 3.0%, and led the gainers on the DJIA, after Morgan Stanley (MS) and UBS (UBS) recommended the shares. Morgan Stanley’s analyst raised the price target on the stock due to encouraging demand … [visit site to read more] Housing Starts Plummet - More Stimulus PLEASE November 18, 2009 at 10:50 am “Groundbreaking for single-family homes fell 6.8 percent last month to an annual rate of 476,000 units, the lowest since May.  Starts for the volatile multifamily segment tumbled 34.6 percent to a 53,000 annual pace, extending the previous month’s slump. Compared to October last year, housing starts dropped 30.7 percent. The latest data will be a blow to the housing market, which had shown signs of stabilization after a three year slump. Residential investment contributed to … [visit site to read more] Chinatrust Buys Stake In AIG Unit November 18, 2009 at 10:45 am Chinatrust Financial Holding Company, the biggest credit card issuer of Taiwan , said on Tuesday that it will buy a 30% stake in American International Group Inc.’s (AIG) Taiwan life insurance unit, Nan Shan Life Insurance Company, for $660 million from Hong Kong-based China Strategic Holdings. On Oct 12, 2009, AIG announced the sale of its 98% stake in Nan Shan to an investor group consisting of China Strategic and Hong Kong-based Primus Financial for about $2.15 billion. This … [visit site to read more] Stocks To Watch Wednesday November 18, 2009 at 10:41 am Speculative players C - Stochastic indicator began showing signs of reversal. ZION - Ready for a big move. Stochastic indicator began showing signs of reversal. RIMM - Keep this stock in your radar for a possible breakdown below $60.55. Technically Bearish. M - Keep this stock in your radar for a possible breakdown below $17.45. Technically Bearish. DRYS - Good support at $6.71 ( 50 dma ) TRN - The stock in a short term breakout mode. Target $20 MOT - Daily chart looks Bullish … [visit site to read more] Swiss Franc: The Downside Prevails November 18, 2009 at 10:10 am Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more] Japanese Yen: Under Pressure November 18, 2009 at 10:10 am Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more] British Pound: The Downside Prevails November 18, 2009 at 10:10 am Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more] Euro: Under Pressure November 18, 2009 at 10:10 am Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more] Beware The Tax Traps Of Commodity ETFs November 18, 2009 at 10:01 am Millions of investors who bought gold in the last 12 months are undoubtedly very happy at the moment - considering that the yellow metal has risen 60% since last November to a recent close of $1,138.60 an ounce on Monday. But chances are good that many won’t be smiling when they discover just what the taxman has planned for their gains. Unbeknownst to most investors, gold is considered a collectible not a capital asset. In plain English, this means that despite the fact that many … [visit site to read more] Video: Mixed Results In Asia November 18, 2009 at 9:47 am The major Asian/Pacific markets saw mixed results this session as Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 squeezed out a gain at market close. … [visit site to read more] As Stimulus Spending Winds Down, Will Corporate America Carry The Ball? November 18, 2009 at 9:45 am It’s no secret that government spending has been fueling much of the growth in the $14.2 trillion U.S. economy. And if consumers aren’t ready for the handoff when that stimulus spending winds down - and they certainly don’t appear to be - it will be up to the U.S. business sector to carry the ball. And it’s not at all clear that Corporate America is ready, willing or able to fulfill that role. For one thing, companies just aren’t hiring en masse. That means the current economic … [visit site to read more] Policy Makers Rhetoric Still Moving Markets November 18, 2009 at 9:17 am The currency rhetoric continues to come out hard and fast from policy makers. Yesterday, we heard for the European side of the equation, as Trichet stated that Bernanke’s recent “strong USD” comments were correct and that he was “fully aligned with Bernanke’s analysis.” Euro group Chairman Junker was kind enough to agree and stated that the EUR had not reached worrying levels. While the verbal intervention makes nice new fodder and provide plenty of FX volatility, we doubt there is any bite … [visit site to read more] Is Gold On The Fast Track Toward $1,200? November 18, 2009 at 9:01 am Well, the long-expected retest and subsequent breakout of '$1,000 Gold’ has finally occurred, with the rally taking the cash price of the metal to the north side of the $1,100 per ounce level in relatively short order. The big question now, of course, is this - does Gold have enough investor interest behind it to push it to the next significant price level, $1,200? Let’s examine a long-term chart for cash Gold to see if we can find out if Gold can reach that price target before correcting … [visit site to read more]   This email was sent to gatdemit001@gmail.com.  Create Your Account Don't want to receive this feed any longer? Unsubscribe here.