Tuesday 24 November 2009

11/24 Daily Markets

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Video: NYSE Closing Bell Market Monitor: TSN, CPB, DHI
November 23, 2009 at 9:33 pm

The latest in news, commentary, and information on what’s moving the US equities markets. Watch this broadcast LIVE at 4:00 pm EST daily @ “http://www.nyx.com/marketmonitor” … [visit site to read more]



Insider Selling Can Be An Important Tool In Determining Potential Trouble For Both Individual Stocks And The Broader Market
November 23, 2009 at 9:01 pm

Insider stock transactions - the buying and selling of stock by corporate “insiders” - won’t tell you where the overall stock market is headed. But the analysis of this type of legal insider trading can be a handy indicator when it comes to making buy and sell decisions on individual stocks.

In fact, by watching insider transactions, investors can actually gain an edge in certain situations, an academic researcher and leading expert on insider transactions said in an interview with … [visit site to read more]



Video: NYC's Emergency Food Assistance Jumps 20.9%
November 23, 2009 at 8:45 pm

Despite improvements in the global economy. the New York City Coalition Against Hunger has released a report showing that emergency food assistance in the city is up 20.9% compared to one year ago. … [visit site to read more]



Japan ETFs: The New War They're Waging
November 23, 2009 at 8:20 pm

Japan’s economy and exchange traded funds (ETFs) have a new battle to fight: deflation. In fact, for the first time since 2006, the country’s Cabinet Office acknowledged that it was contending with the dreaded D-word.

Consumer prices and deflationary pressures have been facing Japan for months, but this summer the pace began to quicken. On Nov. 20, Japan’s Cabinet Office issued a monthly report that for the first time since 2006 acknowledged that the country was suffering from … [visit site to read more]



EUR/USD Lower In Asia Trading
November 23, 2009 at 8:10 pm

After continuing yesterday’s early Asian rally on the back of dueling comments between the ECB’s Trichet and Fed’s Bullard, the EUR/USD pair has moved lower to start the new trading day. The release earlier of Australia’s Conference Board Leading Index lower for September (0.3% vs. 1.8%) helped the risk and commodity pairs lose their bid. Based on the pattern developing below, the November move higher has been helped with support around the 50% retracement level and each move back … [visit site to read more]



Stock Picks For Tuesday: Curis, THQ And DryShips
November 23, 2009 at 8:09 pm

( click to enlarge )

Curis (CRIS) Breakout again !!!! Really Cool !!!!!! Curis shares closed the day gaining more than 19% to a new 52-week high. CRIS has been on one of the most amazing runs of this most recent bull market. Looking at the daily chart the investor sentiment in Curis stock showed by RSI continues strong and MACD still going up. Stock still trading in a strong Bull Market with share price above 20 dma, 50 dma and 200 daily moving average. Following this technical … [visit site to read more]



Video: Oil Prices Rise As Dollar Looses Luster
November 23, 2009 at 8:08 pm

Front month crude prices were on the downside this session as the US dollar fell against higher- yielding currencies. … [visit site to read more]



Buy Microsoft Stock As It Transits Into The Cloud-Computing Revolution
November 23, 2009 at 8:01 pm

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) reported a strong quarter at the end of October on the back of resurgent demand in the PC market. But the key issue to watch is the important transition in the company’s major technologies.

Microsoft just launched its very successful Windows 7 operating system, which has produced a major new upgrade cycle in the industry. In England, for example, Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) had more success selling Windows 7 packages than it did Harry Potter books.  Windows 7 has … [visit site to read more]



Distorted IEA Oil Reserve Figures Create Biofuel Opportunities In "White Gold" Region Of Central Asia
November 23, 2009 at 7:06 pm

The recent revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA may have distorted key oil projections under intense U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers rarely come forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning thermonuclear explosion on future global oil production. The Bush administration’s actions in pressuring the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves have the … [visit site to read more]



Cartoon: This Unemployment Line Seems Different
November 23, 2009 at 7:03 pm

Source: Tom Toles, Washington Post, November 15, … [visit site to read more]



India ETFs: Too Much, Too Soon?
November 23, 2009 at 7:01 pm

Emerging markets have become the hot investment,  and India’s exchange traded funds (ETFs) took in their fair share. However, the inundation of foreign investments into India threatens to disrupt the country’s economic recovery and the government may have to step in to stem the tide.

Foreign investors funneled more than $15 billion to Indian equities in 2009, sending stocks up more than 75% and strengthening the rupee, reports Rajesh Kumar Singh for Reuters. With expected positive … [visit site to read more]



Video: Market Movers: SBUX, DHI, DE, CIEN, NT
November 23, 2009 at 6:09 pm

The latest news and information on U.S. stocks that are moving the market. … [visit site to read more]



29 Retailers You'll Have A Harder Time Finding After 2009
November 23, 2009 at 6:01 pm

The holiday shopping season should be right around the corner. But this year, the nearby store that you’re used to visiting may very well be closed. Many big retail chains are going the way of the downsized (and often unemployed) American consumer…they are shutting down.

To offer you a better sense of which retailers are getting hit the hardest we’ve provided a list of the 29 retail chains with the most closed stores in 2009. Some are no surprise at all (ahem…GM, Chrysler, Circuit … [visit site to read more]



Emerging Markets Consider Capital Controls To Combat "Hot Money" Inflows
November 23, 2009 at 5:01 pm

Concerned with accelerating inflows of so-called “hot money,” more emerging market nations are considering new capital controls to keep their currencies from appreciating and prevent asset bubbles from becoming a problem.

Loose monetary policy in the United States and Europe has flooded fast-growing Asian economies where Western investors are seeking higher yields. India, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Indonesia are among the regions investigating options to combat the rapid … [visit site to read more]



Don't Count Out Actively Managed ETFs
November 23, 2009 at 4:01 pm

Actively managed exchange traded funds (ETFs) are still a relatively new player on the market, but already some providers and investors may have already written them off. Is it premature to do so?

Actively managed ETFs are still in their infancy, and the segment is still growing. Last week’s launch of two actively managed funds - one apiece from PIMCO and iShares - is proof of that. On top of that, there are several more of these ETFs planned.

David Hoffman for InvestmentNews reports … [visit site to read more]



The Simplest Reason Gold Will Soar
November 23, 2009 at 3:01 pm

When the bank pays you nothing in interest, gold goes up. And right now, the bank is paying you nothing in interest.

Why does gold go up when interest rates are low? It’s simple…

The knock against owning gold has always been that, unlike cash, it pays no interest… Compound interest is almost irresistible. If you can earn 7% a year on a $10,000 deposit, in 10 years time, it will be worth $20,000. Gold will just sit there like a bump on a log.

But every so often, like right … [visit site to read more]



Despite Recession, Innovation Is Alive And Well
November 23, 2009 at 2:01 pm

Click to enlarge.

From the press release for Booz & Company’s 2009 edition of the Global Innovation 1000:

In the face of a severe global recession, the world’s 1,000 largest publicly traded corporate research and development spenders increased R&D budgets in 2008, affirming the critical importance of innovation to their corporate strategies, according to Booz & Company’s Global Innovation 1000, the global management consulting firm’s fifth annual analysis of global … [visit site to read more]



Video: Euro Rises On Central Bank Speculation
November 23, 2009 at 1:26 pm

Higher-yielding currencies were favored to start the week on growing speculation that the ECB will soon eliminate its stimulus measures while the US will likely maintain its measures. … [visit site to read more]



What Is Ron Paul's Real Agenda When He Talks About Auditing The Fed
November 23, 2009 at 1:21 pm

Ron Paul’s proposal to audit the Fed sounds innocuous enough, but it is anything but.

I know from personal experience as president of the Dallas Fed that GAO auditors are only too eager to support the political agendas of their Congressional sponsors. Past efforts to have ongoing GAO audits have excluded monetary policy and promised financial audits only. The current bill specifically targets monetary policy.

I’ve enjoyed my brief encounters with Mr. Paul. I like him personally, but … [visit site to read more]



Physical Gold, Silver And Oil Out-Performing Their Stocks?
November 23, 2009 at 1:18 pm

Since the market crash in late 2008 we have seen investors favor quality stocks that pay dividends and have steady earnings. Fast growth companies and equities with physical resources like commodities have also done well.

Let’s examine the monthly charts of gold, silver, oil and natural gas - and observe how they have traded in comparison to their mining equities

Gold - Monthly Chart
Looking at the monthly chart as far back as 2004, we see that gold has formed the same patterns … [visit site to read more]



Forex Trading Ideas: Is Sterling About To Get Pounded?
November 23, 2009 at 12:45 pm

Fundamentals

They used to say that the sun never sets on the British Empire, as Great Britain was the dominant economic power in the world prior to World War II. Now, however, the Pound Sterling has fallen on hard times, as traders fear record budget deficits and continued policies of low interest rates will weigh heavily on the nation’s currency. On Thursday, it was announced that Britain ran a budget deficit of 11.4 billion Pounds in October, which was the largest monthly deficit … [visit site to read more]



Chart Of The Week: No More Easy Money For Volatility Sellers?
November 23, 2009 at 12:21 pm

One month ago the VIX (^VIX) closed at a 2009 record low of 20.69, so it should not be a big surprise that realized volatility over the course of the past month has been higher than predicted by the VIX. What I find interesting about this development is that last week was the first time since February 27th (exactly one week before the market bottomed) that 21 day realized volatility turned out to be higher than the level of volatility predicted by the VIX.

What does this mean?

In … [visit site to read more]



Silver Hits New Highs At Top Of Uptrend Channel
November 23, 2009 at 12:19 pm

Price action on spot silver, a daily chart of which is shown, has reached the very top of a key parallel uptrend channel, in the process hitting a new long-term high (just short of $19). This high at the top of the parallel uptrend channel also coincides with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the bullish run from $16.06 to $17.73 early this month. The current bullishness in silver mirrors the phenomenal run that has occurred in gold, as the latter hits progressively higher all-time … [visit site to read more]



2009 Best Small Companies Part 3
November 23, 2009 at 12:01 pm

This is a continuation of the series of valuing each of the 200 Forbes Best Small Companies

2009 Forbes 200 Best Small Companies Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3

In this list, I’ll list up the valuation results of companies 35-50. Keep in mind that my valuations are only as correct as my assumptions and knowledge of the company and industry. Since this is a quick rundown of each company, I’m definitely going to be wrong on many of these companies. As long as my accuracy is above 50% and I … [visit site to read more]



Gold Has Just Barely Entered The Gravity-Free Zone
November 23, 2009 at 12:01 pm

Gold was all the rage again last week. But why is it rising, and does anyone really know what it’s worth?

According to the way I calculate momentum, gold has just barely entered the gravity-free zone - where it has the potential to start advancing a lot, with much more fluidity.

And that translates into much higher prices.

Although I normally abhor such popular and trendy positions, the trend-following rules in my asset-allocation models are screaming for a higher weighting than … [visit site to read more]



AUD/USD Loses Momentum After Testing The 200-Hour Moving Average
November 23, 2009 at 11:54 am

The AUDUSD moved above trendline resistance, and the 100 hour MA  (blue lines in chart above) but could not gather any momentum above the 200 hour MA (green MA line) at the 0.9270 level (0.9276 was the high).

The price has come down from the high as the dollar corrects, but the price approaches the support at the 0.9244 level (100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart below).  A break of this level will look to test the 100 hour MA at the 0.9226 level currently and the midpoint of the … [visit site to read more]



Fed Comments Revive Risk Appetite, Sending US Dollar Lower
November 23, 2009 at 11:45 am

St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard said in a speech over the weekend that the Fed should retain the flexibility to respond through continued purchases of mortgage securities in 2010 should it see the need. In conjunction with the views of Chicago’s Evans who sees perhaps no change in rates into as far as 2011, investors are today reveling in abundant liquidity and downplaying the prospects for the U.S. dollar. As they do so they are reversing last week’s theme of global slowdown. Equity … [visit site to read more]



Structural US Dollar Weakness Persists
November 23, 2009 at 11:42 am

Despite the USD’s resurgence on Friday, a strong performance from Asian equity indices at the start of this week has quickly put the USD back under pressure, and one can’t help but feel that sideways range-trading could be stubbornly entrenched. Gold is providing the only decent spectacle in the market, as it rallies unfalteringly to $1167.82 highs so far, and seems determined to push straight on up to $1180-1200 topside targets seemingly without pause. The momentum clearly remains bullish for … [visit site to read more]



Why Is Pimco's Bill Gross Investing In Utilities?
November 23, 2009 at 11:39 am

There is no doubt that the Fed and Treasury are compelling investors to allocate capital and savings into the market. With savings rates effectively at or near 0%, holding cash is expensive both in terms of no return and opportunity cost. That said, what is one to do when large parts of the market appear to be “bubbling” over due to Uncle Sam’s excessive liquidity and the economy remains strapped?

Let’s check in with one of our Sense on Cents Economic All-Stars, Pimco’s Bill Gross. In … [visit site to read more]



Morning Movers: LDK Solar, Origin Agritec, USG
November 23, 2009 at 11:29 am

(SEED) - Origin Agritech Ltd. - Shares of the technology-focused crop seed company skyrocketed 50% higher to a new 52-week high of $7.84 this morning. Option traders exchanged nearly 14,000 contracts on the stock by 10:20 am (EDT) on total previous existing open interest of just 2,634 lots. Stay tuned for more information, but it looks like traders are voraciously scooping up December 10 strike call options to position for further upside momentum in share price. Option implied volatility is … [visit site to read more]



Video: Tyson Foods' 3Q Results Are Unappetizing: TSN
November 23, 2009 at 11:16 am

The worlds largest meat producer, Tyson Foods (TSN), announced Monday that it had lost $455 million during the quarter. … [visit site to read more]



Australian Dollar: Caution
November 23, 2009 at 11:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



Canadian Dollar: Caution
November 23, 2009 at 11:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



Stocks To Watch On Monday
November 23, 2009 at 11:03 am

List of stocks where the chart is displaying a cup and handle formation

ORCL - Oracle Corporation
URE - Ultra Real Estate P
UNH - UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC
RCL - ROYAL CARIBBEAN
HON - HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL
YGE - Yingli Green Energy
PGR - PROGRESSIVE CORP
VNO - VORNADO REALTY TRUST
PCAR - PACCAR Inc
EQR - EQUITY RESIDNTL PRO
TIN - TEMPLE INLAND INC
BKS - BARNES & NOBLE INC
NXY - Nexen Inc
CBL - CBL and Associates
VNQ - VANGUARD SPEC FDS R
CVH - COVENTRY HEALTH … [visit site to read more]



Thanksgiving Week: Stock Trading Tends To Be Less Bullish
November 23, 2009 at 11:01 am

In this week’s comments on investor sentiment, I alluded to the positive seasonality seen in the stock markets during the week of Thanksgiving. Here is some compelling data.

This is a very nice table from Trader’s Narrative showing how the S&P500 (^GSPC) has performed over the last 20 years during the Thanksgiving holiday week. My thanks to Babak for allowing me to share this with my readers.
Table 1. S&P500 Performance/ Thanksgiving Week

While the table covers only 20 years, … [visit site to read more]



More Than Just Mines: A Look At Other Ways To Profit From Coal, Copper And Ore
November 23, 2009 at 11:01 am

Broad capital spending cuts, and curtailed production have landed machinery companies in the pits but mining equipment makers will likely be among the first to emerge from under the recessionary rubble. The reason is that commodity prices are up substantially from their recent lows, at a time when the world is running out of all those precious natural resources.

Highly Coveted Resources

Aerial photo of Coppermine Point, BVI, bareboatsbvi.com

The main commodities driving … [visit site to read more]



Stock Market News: Ebay Website Outage; Microsoft In Discussions With News Corp. To "De-index" Firm's News Websites From Google
November 23, 2009 at 10:53 am

A large run of holiday sales offerings crashed the Ebay (EBAY) website, causing a major weekend web outage
Tyson Foods (TSN) reported better-than-expected earnings of 28 cents a share, beating Zacks estimates by 2 cents, on revenues of $7.2 billion, which exceeded Zacks estimates of $6.85 billion
India’s Reliance Industries bid $12 billion in cash for Lyondell Bassell when it exits bankruptcy
Microsoft (MSFT) is reportedly in discussions with News Corp. (NWSA) to “de-index” … [visit site to read more]



U.S. Bank Failures Reach 124
November 23, 2009 at 10:53 am

U.S. regulators on Friday closed down Commerce Bank of Southwest Florida. Though there are some early signs of economic recovery, bank failures go on growing with rising loan defaults. This takes the total number of bank failures to 124, compared to 25 in 2008 and 3 in 2007. The weak economy continues to weigh heavily on banks with a stream of loan defaults.

As the industry has to tolerate bad loans that were made during the credit explosion, the trouble in the banking system goes even … [visit site to read more]



Video: Asian Markets Start Week On The Upside
November 23, 2009 at 10:50 am

The major Asian/Pacific markets that were open for trading this session were all on the upside to start off the new trading week. … [visit site to read more]



Forex Traders Await Tuesday's German IFO Report
November 23, 2009 at 10:48 am

Fundamental Insight:

Traders await Tomorrow’s release of the Ifo Business Climate Index by the German Institute for Economic Research.

The index is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses, and determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.

Analysts expect tomorrow’s reading to stand at 92.50, … [visit site to read more]



Caterpillar (CAT) - Bull Of The Day
November 23, 2009 at 10:39 am

Caterpillar (CAT) is a market leader in construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, and industrial gas turbines. With its strong brand name, pricing power and global dealer network, we believe Caterpillar is well positioned to take advantage of the growing need for infrastructure development globally.

Though the company expects 2009 sales to decline more than 35% year-over-year, it anticipates an improvement in its top-line in 2010. The company forecasts a 10% … [visit site to read more]



Better Existing Home Data Leads To Some US Dollar Buying
November 23, 2009 at 10:38 am

The better home sales data pushed stocks up but it also led to some dollar buying as the market failed to extend the gains.

The GBPUSD, which was approaching key resistance at the 1.6668 level, reached a high of 1.6647 and that is all it could extend.  The price is now back down toward intraday support against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.6608 level  Watch this moving average to provide some support/buying interest.   A break should see some additional … [visit site to read more]



Swiss Franc: The Downside Prevails
November 23, 2009 at 10:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



Japanese Yen: Under Pressure
November 23, 2009 at 10:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



British Pound: The Downside Prevails
November 23, 2009 at 10:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



Euro: Under Pressure
November 23, 2009 at 10:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



ETF Update: Health Stocks And Health Care Legislation
November 23, 2009 at 9:45 am

“What’s the news?” is the first question when we see a big move in a stock or sector.  There is always some reason, valid or not.  Knowing the news explanation is an important step for those who trade on fundamentals.

After months on the national stage, the debate over health care reform has reached the final act.  In the next few weeks we will know whether national policy will change, and the nature of that change.  Meanwhile, the health stocks have been signaling “There’s news” on … [visit site to read more]



China: A Riddle Wrapped In An Enigma
November 23, 2009 at 9:01 am

Too many and too few people…too much and too little money…a history so epic many would rather forget it and a future so uncertain everyone is willing to gamble on it. One sometimes gets the feeling that China’s economy is beyond control; a behemoth, the likes of which the world has never seen, hurtling forward at an astronomical rate; unpredictable and, to the confusion and dismay of all who seek to know her, stubbornly and unapologetically elusive.

Jim Chanos, perhaps the world’s … [visit site to read more]



Video: Ohio Files Suit Against Credit Agencies
November 23, 2009 at 9:00 am

The attorney general of Ohio filed a lawsuit against Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Corp. and Fitch Inc. The AG alleges that the agencies inflated ratings on risky mortgage-backed securities. … [visit site to read more]



Should A House Be Treated As A Great Investment?
November 23, 2009 at 7:01 am

I am always surprised to see the enthusiasm people exhibit when they hear that housing prices are rising, to me this is 100% bad news.

I hear remarks all the time like,
Housing prices are up 12% over last year, I am going to make a killing on this house when I sell in a year or two!
Let’s say you buy a house as a primary residence at $300K and are fortunate enough to see a 12% compound increase in the price of the house for 3 years in a row. So that makes the value of your house now … [visit site to read more]


 

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