Wednesday 25 November 2009

11/25 Daily Markets

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Video: NYSE Closing Bell Market Monitor: MDT, BKS, AEO
November 24, 2009 at 10:05 pm

The latest in news, commentary, and information on what’s moving the US equities markets. Watch this broadcast LIVE at 4:00 pm EST daily @ “http://www.nyx.com/marketmonitor” … [visit site to read more]



Video: Oil Prices Slump On Poor Data
November 24, 2009 at 10:03 pm

Front month crude prices dropped this session as weak US economic data did little to spur interest in energy shares. … [visit site to read more]



Video: Oil Prices Slump On Poor Data
November 24, 2009 at 10:03 pm

Front month crude prices dropped this session as weak US economic data did little to spur interest in energy shares. … [visit site to read more]



Video: McDonald's Goes Green In Europe
November 24, 2009 at 10:03 pm

McDonald’s announced Monday that it will trade in it’s trademark red background behind its golden arches in favor of a hunter green to emphasize the company’s moves to become more environmentally friendly. … [visit site to read more]



Video: McDonald's Goes Green In Europe
November 24, 2009 at 10:03 pm

McDonald’s announced Monday that it will trade in it’s trademark red background behind its golden arches in favor of a hunter green to emphasize the company’s moves to become more environmentally friendly. … [visit site to read more]



US Housing Has Never Been More Affordable
November 24, 2009 at 10:01 pm

The release of the Case-Schiller Home Price Index is just one of the plethora of housing indicators due to be released this week. We bought home builders based on low supply and the prospect of high demand. In fact, last week the National Association of Homebuilders released its Housing Affordability Index.

According to the NAHB, housing has never been more affordable in the history of the index. To be sure, the index only covers 1992-2009, but it does account for the housing boom and … [visit site to read more]



Federal Reserve Statement: No News Is Good News?
November 24, 2009 at 9:23 pm

In the Uncle Sam Economy circa 2009, seemingly every meaningful economic development runs through Washington.  From housing to health care and finance to “you name it, ” the grand old man and his henchmen have their hands over almost every aspect of our lives. Getting smothered yet?

Against that backdrop, the Washington establishment dominates the news and has numbed the American public in the process. I witness this novocaine effect once again today with the release of the Federal … [visit site to read more]



Another Options Strategy For Income Investors
November 24, 2009 at 9:01 pm

Writing covered calls is one of my favorite ways to generate additional income from stocks already owned, especially if they also pay dividends. That’s because you basically get two cash flows from one stock - without adding any additional downside risk at all.

However, if your goal is collecting additional income without having to sell the underlying shares, the ongoing run-up in share prices hasn’t provided an ideal environment for writing covered calls.

That’s why today I want … [visit site to read more]



The New Crude Oil Benchmark That Could Change The Oil Market's Price Dynamics
November 24, 2009 at 8:01 pm

Earlier this month, the world’s largest oil producer set the table for a move away from traditional light, sweet crude oil.

Saudi Aramco, the state-owned company of Saudi Arabia has decided to drop West Texas Intermediate (NYMEX: WTI) as the basis for pricing its oil sold to the U.S. market. The Saudis priced off WTI for 15 years.

Why? Well, quite simply, WTI crude oil is dangerously volatile - as evidenced by the drop from $150 per barrel to $30 crude over the past year.

In its … [visit site to read more]



Washington Examiner: "A Fox Is Guarding The Henhouse At The SEC"
November 24, 2009 at 7:21 pm

Add the Washington Examiner to the increasing number of media outlets picking up on the stench emanating from the incestuous Wall Street-Washington relationship encompassing our nation’s financial regulatory oversight. How so? The Examiner’s Marta Mossburg writes today, A Fox Is Guarding the Henhouse at the SEC. Who is this fox? None other than Mary Schapiro, current head of the SEC and former head of the Wall Street self-regulatory organization FINRA. Mossburg highlights:
Not everyone … [visit site to read more]



Why Gold Prices Could Fall From Here… And Two Ways To Play The Move
November 24, 2009 at 7:01 pm

Of all the great investments you could have made in 2009, gold is right up there among the best of them.

The price of gold has surged this year, taking gold shares upwards with it. Readers of my Xcelerated Profits Report have rung the register with 45% profits on Goldcorp (GG) and a triple-digit winner on Golden Star Resources (GSS). We’re also up big on Yamana Gold (AUY) at the moment.

All is good, right?

On the surface, perhaps. But not if you believe what the options … [visit site to read more]



Summary Of Holiday Spending Surveys & Reports
November 24, 2009 at 7:01 pm

If the following round-up of holiday spending surveys and news reports (with salient quotes) is anything to go by, those who have been counting on a V-shaped recovery in the (consumer-dependent) U.S. economy might want to reconsider:
“Consumers in a Frugal Holiday Mood, The Conference Board Reports” (PR Newswire)
U.S. households are expected to spend an average of $390 on Christmas gifts this holiday season, down from last year’s estimate of $418, The Conference Board reports … [visit site to read more]



Gold Rush Creating Issues For Gold Buyers
November 24, 2009 at 6:01 pm

GLD - 10Q

Some interesting things to think about when owning paper gold GLD - from prospectus

There is an article in the WSJ this morning that talks about HSBC returning gold to retail clients as its’ vaults are becoming overloaded with the yellow metal.  There’s a similar article here  The articles suggest that it needs to make room for its’ institutional clients.  See below :
“HSBC has told retail clients to remove their small holdings from its fortress beneath … [visit site to read more]



Chinese Presence Growing In Mexico
November 24, 2009 at 5:01 pm

It’s a big world out there.

While American investors can become consumed by the developments here at home, we need to be mindful that there is a LOT going on beyond our shores. To that end, I was thrilled to host Keith Fitz-Gerald on No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle on November 8th. Keith addressed a number of developments in Asia during the course of our interview.

Keith and I reviewed his book Fiscal Hangover: How to Profit from the New Global Economy, which was … [visit site to read more]



Option Traders Barter For Calls On EBAY
November 24, 2009 at 4:49 pm

EBAY - eBay, Inc. - The online marketplace attracted bullish investors to the January 2010 contract this afternoon. EBAY’s shares gained 0.5% during the session to arrive at the current price of $23.56. Traders paid an average of 11 cents per contract to purchase 5,500 calls at the January 27.5 strike price. Optimism spread to the higher January 29 strike where about 10,500 calls were picked up for 5 pennies apiece. Longer-term bullish sentiment appeared at the April 30 strike where … [visit site to read more]



Murdoch's Gamble: Will It Benefit Media ETFs?
November 24, 2009 at 4:01 pm

Free daily news on the Internet is a luxury that many Americans have become comfortable with. Some feel that they’ve gotten a little too comfortable. That’s why Rupert Murdoch is taking aim at the old model with a new one. Will exchange traded funds (ETFs) benefit, or is this idea DOA?

Murdoch wants major engines such as Google (GOOG) to pay for news generated by his newspapers, such as The Wall Street Journal and the Times in London. Now, reports suggest that Microsoft wants to strike … [visit site to read more]



US Home Prices Continue To Rise
November 24, 2009 at 3:34 pm

This morning the S&P Case-Schiller index was released. The Composite 20 index (C-20), which covers 20 of the largest metropolitan areas in the country rose by 0.27% on a seasonally adjusted basis (home prices are seasonal, so the adjusted data is what you should be looking at — most of the press makes a mistake by focusing on the unadjusted data, thus these figures might vary from what you read elsewhere). That was the fourth straight increase. The Composite 10 (C-10) index, which is … [visit site to read more]



Consumer Confidence Increasing
November 24, 2009 at 3:31 pm

The Conference Board’s index of Consumer Confidence increased to 49.5% from a significantly upwardly revised level of 48.7 in October. Originally, the October level was at 47.5%. Consensus expectations were for the consumer confidence level to actually fall to 47.5%. The index saw a big improvement from dismal levels during the spring, but since May consumer confidence has roughly hovered within a few points of 50.

All of the improvement came from the expectations component of the … [visit site to read more]



Bank Of America Call Options In Hot Demand
November 24, 2009 at 3:24 pm

BAC - Bank of America - Long-term Bank of America bulls are out in full force today, scooping up call options like they’re going out of style. BAC’s shares are off slightly by less than 1% to $16.19. Plain-vanilla call buying in the January 2011 contract indicates investors expect shares to surge over the next 13 months. A large chunk of 50,000 calls were picked up at the January 25 strike for an average premium of 86 cents apiece. Shares must rally 60% from the current price to breach … [visit site to read more]



The Great Louisiana Healthcare Rip-Off
November 24, 2009 at 2:01 pm

Senator Mary Landrieu’s blatant extortion of a broken system shows just how broken that system is… and how “the tragedy of the commons” has become the tragedy of government.

For those of you who recall the classic '80s flick The Karate Kid, this feels very much like a Mr. Miyagi market. The name of the game is “Risk On, Risk Off.”

Last week, it was “Risk Off” as three-month Treasury bill yields went negative. But then on Monday, markets opened with a roar as it was suddenly … [visit site to read more]



Video: Market Movers: CRM, EMN, WH, MDT, IWA, WIN
November 24, 2009 at 1:35 pm

The latest news and information on U.S. stocks that are moving the market. … [visit site to read more]



Video: Risk Appetite Rises On Economic Data
November 24, 2009 at 1:15 pm

Risk appetite was on the rise this session following a slide in home prices and news of the economy expanding at a slower place. … [visit site to read more]



Consumer Attitudes: The Future Of Saving And Spending
November 24, 2009 at 1:01 pm

This recession has shaken people up, but what will be the lasting effects on consumer behavior?  That’s one of the key questions as we look forward at the nature of the recovery.  I’ve been arguing for a “return to normalcy,” in which people will abandon the exuberance of the boom, but without going overboard into miserliness.  However, some folks are looking for a return to Great Depression-born attitudes toward thrift.  So let’s look at the savings rate in the Great Depression and … [visit site to read more]



Will Emerging-Market Outperformance Last?
November 24, 2009 at 12:01 pm

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has notched up a massive 72.3% gain for the year to date, and an even more impressive 101.4% since the March 9 lows. Although emerging markets were the clear leaders during the initial months of the recovery, the MSCI World Index has subsequently done some catching up but still lags with gains of 26.7% and 69.3% for the two measurement periods.
The chart below shows the performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index relative to the Dow Jones World Index. … [visit site to read more]



Economic Highlights: GDP Up 2.8%, Corporate Profits Increase By $130 Billion
November 24, 2009 at 11:30 am

GDP Preliminary Q3 Estimates show GDP increased by 2.8%, less than the expected 2.9% increase, following a 3.5% estimated increase in the advance Q3 estimate (today’s preliminary release is based on a more complete set of data), after contracting by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2009. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, federal government spending, residential … [visit site to read more]



Risk Aversion Takes A Back Seat In Forex Markets
November 24, 2009 at 11:21 am

A slew of overnight woes concerning the health of banks around the world was limited in its support for the U.S. dollar. One year ago that evidence would have been enough to raise the heartbeat of the bears and send the pre-market futures down by 2%. Today, equity index futures continue to point to another positive North American session and the net impact is to provide a prop for the euro rather than the U.S. dollar. The euro also rose after the strongest reading for 15 months in a poll of … [visit site to read more]



Video: H.J. Heinz Pours Out 3Q Profit Loss
November 24, 2009 at 11:17 am

H.J. Heinz (HNZ) posted a lower quarterly profit as it was hurt by sales declines in North America and Europe. … [visit site to read more]



Stock Market Movers: Dollar Tree, Origin Agritech, US Airways Group
November 24, 2009 at 11:14 am

LCC - US Airways Group, Inc. - Shares of US Airways are up more than 1.5% this morning to $3.15 on news the firm is delaying delivery of 54 Airbus jets at least until 2013. LCC’s CEO, Doug Parker, stated that the deferral will likely increase the firm’s available cash by $450 million at the conclusion of 2010. Bullish option traders reacted quickly to the news by purchasing more than 10,250 calls at the January 4.0 strike for 25 cents premium per contract. Call-buyers apparently expect … [visit site to read more]



Will Copper Continue To Shine In '09?
November 24, 2009 at 11:12 am

Fundamentals

Copper futures have been trading sideways for the past few sessions, after firmly establishing a base above the $3 level. The Copper market continues to rally, in spite of increasing inventory levels. LME stockpiles of the base metal have increased for three weeks. There has been much discussion regarding China’s future purchases. On one hand, Copper users in China have been aggressively stockpiling the metal over the past few months, leading to more than ample inventory … [visit site to read more]



Australian Dollar: Caution
November 24, 2009 at 11:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



Swiss Franc: The Downside Prevails
November 24, 2009 at 11:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



Canadian Dollar: Caution
November 24, 2009 at 11:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



Japanese Yen: Under Pressure
November 24, 2009 at 11:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



British Pound: The Downside Prevails
November 24, 2009 at 11:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



Euro: Under Pressure
November 24, 2009 at 11:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



When Do We Sell Gold?
November 24, 2009 at 11:09 am

How long before we see sellers of gold? Yes, I know I must be mad to ask the question, but it’s a good time of year to take profits.

This is a TA piece so I won’t enter into the debate about supply/ demand/ inflation or Indian weddings. All the headlines look to favour gold and, in fairness, there’s little technical analysis to base a short trade on yet.

Yesterday’s potentially bearish shooting star candle has so far been over-ruled by another green candle today. The 21-day … [visit site to read more]



Video: Asian Markets On The Downside
November 24, 2009 at 11:09 am

The major Asian/Pacific markets closed out the second trading session of the week on the downside led by declines in their domestic banking sectors. … [visit site to read more]



How To Value Stocks Using Discounted Cash Flow
November 24, 2009 at 11:01 am

Valuing a Stock with the DCF Method

You may have found a great company that you feel has outstanding potential but always end up getting stuck at what price you should purchase the company. Finding the value of a stock is a critical part of investing successfully. Valuing stocks is not hard, but it does require logic and practice.

Calculating stock values surprising should not consist of lengthy and complicated formulas. If you understand the concepts of how to go about thinking … [visit site to read more]



Stock Market News: HP, Analog Devices, Heinz, Medtronic Report Strong Results, Citigroup Selling Diners Club To Bank Of Montreal
November 24, 2009 at 10:51 am

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) reported strong results after Monday’s close, helped by robust sales in China and improved margins on its service operations. The firm also increased share repurchases to $12 billion and projected fiscal 2010 earnings of $4.25 to $4.35 a share on revenues of $118 billion to $119 billion, inline with its earnings’ preannouncement two weeks earlier
Analog Devices (ADI) reported better-than-expected fiscal fourth quarter earnings of 36 cents a share, 10 cents … [visit site to read more]



Video: NYSE Opening Bell Market Monitor: HP, HNZ, MDT
November 24, 2009 at 10:48 am

The latest in news, commentary, and information on what’s moving the US equities markets. … [visit site to read more]



Watching EUR/USD At The 1.4945 Level Where 100 & 200 Bar Moving Averages Converge
November 24, 2009 at 10:41 am

The 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.4945 level. The price action took the price below the level off the volatility after the 10 AM economic releases.  .  The market is at a decision point. Does it move lower or go higher.  Look for a move away from the … [visit site to read more]



Stocks To Watch Tuesday: Curis, Cell Therapeutics, Qwest
November 24, 2009 at 10:39 am

Speculative plays

CRIS - Curis is now in Breakout mode. The stock reached a new 52 week high of 2.74 on Monday accompanied by a very high volume, of 6 or 7 times than normal. Probably, there are some great news about the results of its products that should come to the market soon.

CTIC - Cell Therapeutics, Inc. - Keep the stock in your radar for a possible breakout over $1.15.
ENER - The stock keeps holding the major support nicely.
Q - Qwest Communications International - … [visit site to read more]



Forex Markets Drift Due To Lack Of Drivers
November 24, 2009 at 10:14 am

The lack of true drivers in markets means that wave-like pattern instinctively takes hold. So it’s Tuesday, which means that risk appetite must be lower. USD was on a firmer footing due to the slightly pullback in investor sentiment. EURUSD was able to momentarily peak past the 1.5000 barrier before buyers disappeared and the pair steadily fell to 1.4900. However, as with the broader FX trend, the EURUSD is still well within its 1.4875 - 1.5000 range. We are seeing much the same range trading … [visit site to read more]



Indian Stock Markets: Sensex Down 49.10 On Tuesday
November 24, 2009 at 9:01 am

Sensex fell 49.10 points or 0.3% to 17131.08
Nifty fell 13.00 points or -0.3% to 5090.55
Mid Cap rose 0.2%. Small Cap rose 0.4%.
BSE 500 was down 0.2%. Sensex gainers: 13

Of 13 BSE Sectoral indices, 9 posted losses.
Advancers: 1372, Decliners: 1370, Unchanged: 87
Advance/Decline Ratio: 1:1

Sensex Day’s Range: 17230.86 - 17027.52
Nifty Day’s Range: 5112.85 - 5053.60
52-Week Range: 17493.17- 8047.17
52-Week change (%): -2.1%

Sensex losers included Tata Steel -2.8%, Reliace Infra … [visit site to read more]



Can The Retail Sector Rouse The Recovery?
November 24, 2009 at 9:01 am

The U.S. consumer is bound to play only a lackluster role in this recovery. But this has not mattered to buyers of consumer discretionary stocks who are intent on using the typical business cycle recovery playbook in a recovery that is anything but typical.

The year-over-year growth rate of October retail sales ex-gas is nearly flat from a year ago, while the overall retail sales momentum is still just shy of closing that gap. With comparisons so easy against a year ago, when the global … [visit site to read more]



Why Agriculture ETF Outlook Appears Promising
November 24, 2009 at 8:01 am

As the world’s markets and exchange traded funds (ETFs) recover from the beating they took in the market meltdown, attention is turning toward what could well be the next crisis: agriculture.

The primary reason that agriculture is gaining attention is the basic imbalance in supply and demand: populations continue to expand and food production continues to decline.  The Economist states that there are other causes for the imbalance, as well:

Changing appetites. As economies gain … [visit site to read more]



Stock Charts For Tuesday: S&P 500, Nano, Hertz
November 24, 2009 at 7:30 am

Taking a look at Monday’s market action, we see that price gapped higher to resistance, then drifted lower for the remainder of the day. Tomorrow morning we have a GDP report, which has potential to move us to new highs.

As SPY makes an attempt at new highs, the small caps are giving us reason for caution. Looking at the IWM daily chart, we see a lower low and potential lower high, with price struggling just below the 50 day moving average.

Overnight I will be watching the … [visit site to read more]



With T-Bill Yields At Zero, It's Time To Beware Of The "Bond Bears"
November 24, 2009 at 7:01 am

There is some interesting action unfolding in the dark corners of the credit market.

Although this exploratory sojourn takes us fairly far afield from our regular stomping grounds in the equity markets, it could have important implications for our investments. So grab a thinking cap, and let’s go exploring.

First, let’s have some context. As you know, governments around the world have unleashed tons of stimulus spending over the last year. Against a recessionary backdrop, it’s no … [visit site to read more]



U.S. Economy Will Grow Faster Than Expected, Jobs To Return To Growth Next Year, Economists Say
November 24, 2009 at 6:45 am

The U.S. economy will grow faster than expected next year, but job growth will begin later than previously thought, according to a survey of business economists.

A panel of 48 economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) showed gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States will grow by 3.2%, but job losses won’t bottom until the first quarter of next year. A previous NABE forecast said employers would add 12,000 to payrolls in that … [visit site to read more]



Tuesday's Forex Outlook
November 24, 2009 at 6:03 am

USD Dollar (USD)

The rally in Europe and Wall Street put pressure on the Dollar that fell across the board and rose only against the Yen. The existing home sales data that came at 6.1M, better than the 5.7M expected and comments about interest rate staying at low levels for some time fueled stocks. Dow Jones closed at the highest level in 13 months and ended the session with a gain of 1.29%. NASDAQ rose by 1.4% and the S&P 500 increased by 1.36%. Gold (XAU) posted new record highs above … [visit site to read more]


 

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