| Stimulus Is Only Stimulating "Economic Misery"
November 8, 2009 at 10:01 pm
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| In a perspective today on the record level of job losses, an IBD editorial asks, “Will it ever occur to our leaders in Washington that what they’re doing isn’t working - and may actually be damaging our economy?” It’s a rhetorical question, of course, as it goes on to describe, “The spectacular failure of the so-called fiscal stimulus to stimulate anything other than economic misery.” It’s misery driven by the concern that we’re on “a slow-growth path that will lead to permanently … [visit site to read more] 
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| The Problems With "Printing Your Way Out Of Debt"
November 8, 2009 at 9:21 pm
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| Governments are running breathtaking deficits…and accumulating alarming debts. Japan has a national debt of nearly 200% of its GDP. Where did that debt come from? It came from 20 years of trying to buy its way out of a slump with borrowed money. Of course, it didn’t work. But now, Britain and America are following the Japanese lead…and the Japanese are still at it! At the present rate, Japan’s government debt will grow to 300% of GDP in 10 years. America’s debt could grow to … [visit site to read more] 
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| Combining Bollinger Bands On Rates Of Change In The VIX
November 8, 2009 at 9:01 pm
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| As far as I can tell, I have not yet posted about the use of Bollinger bands in conjunction a rate of change (ROC) indicator to identify volatility breakouts. In summarizing the action in the VIX (^VIX) over the course of the past two weeks, the chart below captures some of the drama in terms of 10% (solid green) and 20% (solid blue) moving average envelopes. In the six month time frame included in the chart, the moving average envelopes flag last week’s VIX spike as the most … [visit site to read more] 
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| US Unemployment Rate Up Unexpectedly At 10.2%: Is The Economic Rebound A "Jobless Recovery"?
November 8, 2009 at 8:45 pm
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| Welcome to the jobless recovery. The U.S. unemployment rate zoomed to an unexpected 10.2% in October, piercing the double-digit barrier for the first time in 26 years as employers continued to slash payrolls even as the nation’s economy continues to improve. The jobless rate pierced the psychologically important 10% barrier for the first time since 1983, as employers made deeper-than-predicted payroll cuts. In fact, the number of unemployed Americans grew by 190,000 last month, the … [visit site to read more] 
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| Is Another Bubble Building In Stocks, Commodities And Currencies?
November 8, 2009 at 8:40 pm
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| A lot of focus was given to the central banks’ meetings last week. That’s because a lot of people would really like to see target rates start moving up from their low levels. Some argue for higher rates because they think the world is returning to normal and the emergency policy responses need to be removed sooner rather than later to avoid a date with inflation. Others are concerned that all of the ultra-easy money will result in asset price inflation, another bubble and … [visit site to read more] 
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| US Commercial Property Sector: A Tsunami Of Red Ink
November 8, 2009 at 7:05 pm
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| Just over a week ago, Bloomberg revealed in “Geithner Says Commercial Real Estate Woes Won’t Spark Crisis,” that the U.S. Treasury Secretary did not appear to be overly concerned about the threat posed by brewing problems in the commercial property sector:
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said commercial real estate woes won’t set off a new banking crisis, in remarks to the Economic Club of Chicago. “I don’t think so,” Geithner said, when asked whether commercial real estate … [visit site to read more] 
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| Interesting Articles To Read
November 8, 2009 at 7:01 pm
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| This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy. Economist.com: Jobs gloom, with glimmers, November 6, 2009. America’s jobless rate passes 10% but the job market should start to improve soon. Paul Krugman (The New York Times): Why not a WPA? November 6, 2009. A question I’m occasionally asked at public events is, why aren’t we creating jobs with a WPA-type program? It’s a very good question. As it is, … [visit site to read more] 
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| US Dollar Tops, While Precious Metal Stocks Bottom: There's More To Seasonality Than Summer Doldrums
November 8, 2009 at 7:01 pm
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| This has surely been an exciting week for gold and silver investors. The post-Halloween rally that I mentioned in the previous Premium Update, took metals and corresponding stocks substantially higher, and gold itself reached new highs - at least in nominal terms. The mainstream media are now reporting gold-related stories on a big scale and “gold prices” is the second most often searched for phrase on http://finance.yahoo.com. The contrarians among us might be concerned about this fact, as we … [visit site to read more] 
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| Weak U.S. Economy May Not Mean Weak Dollar This Time
November 8, 2009 at 4:56 pm
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| The U.S. Dollar closed trading mixed after trading in a range most of the day following the release of a poor October jobs data report. The loss of 190,000 jobs was somewhat of a surprise. Traders were positioned for a loss of 175,000 jobs. The unemployment rate climbed to a 26-year high to 10.2% and the world didn’t fall apart. Traders either believe this is the bottom in unemployment or they have become complacent which could mean huge volatility is looming.
The Dollar was treated as a … [visit site to read more]
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| Month To Date Market Review
November 8, 2009 at 3:08 am
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| Unemployment hits 10.2% and every self-respecting economist knows it is heading higher. Does anybody want to ask Tim Geithner if he wants to review the rigor and integrity of the Bank Stress Tests conducted last Spring? What were the assumptions used for the Unemployment Rate? For those who care to review the premises of the long ago but now forgotten Bank Stress tests, I submit from the FDIC, FAQs-Supervisory Capital Assessment Program. In regard to the assumptions used for … [visit site to read more]
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| Stock Picks For Monday: Citigroup, JDS Uniphase And General Electric
November 8, 2009 at 3:01 am
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| ( click to enlarge ) JDS Uniphase (JDSU) gapped higher on Friday, as the company released good earnings after Thursday’s close. The stock hit a high of $6.56, which is resistance for the follow through move. From a technical perspective, the stock reversed strongly to move to my short-term resistance at 6.50. The short-term outlook for JDS Uniphase appears positive. The stock could touch an upside target of $7 in the medium term. Some technical indicators are really giving Bullish … [visit site to read more] 
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