Tuesday 1 December 2009

12/1 Daily Markets

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The Echo Of John Maynard Keynes
November 30, 2009 at 11:01 pm

When in doubt, increase taxes.

Further taxing of the financial industry seems like an appropriate policy given the bailouts provided over the last few years. Screw Wall Street, right? Yeah, hit them harder!! They deserve it. While I understand and appreciate the current rage directed at the financial industry, increasing taxes strikes me as an overly simplistic answer to a complex problem.

Increasing taxes on the financial industry is not a new idea. In fact, the noted economist John … [visit site to read more]



Dubai's Debt Crisis Primes The Panic Pump
November 30, 2009 at 10:00 pm

Dubai reminded the world last week: this crisis isn’t over.

With a surprise debt restructuring request by Dubai World - Dubai’s corporate front - and a plea from the tiny UAE for creditors to accept delayed payment, nervous global markets swiftly headed into reverse.

The announcement was timed to land during an extended American holiday, but the markets didn’t care. And while prices have stabilized, investors are just now starting to come to grips with the shock - and the meaning - of … [visit site to read more]



Video: NYSE Closing Bell Market Monitor: M, X
November 30, 2009 at 9:30 pm

The latest in news, commentary, and information on what’s moving the US equities markets. Watch this broadcast LIVE at 4:00 pm EST daily @ “http://www.nyx.com/marketmonitor” … [visit site to read more]



Video: Chevrolet Cruze Vehicle Is Coming To The United States
November 30, 2009 at 9:17 pm

Chevrolet announced that it will introduce the popular Craze model vehicle to US markets during the 3Q of 2010. … [visit site to read more]



What's Going On In The Real World, As Compared To The Fantasy World Of Washington And Wall Street
November 30, 2009 at 9:01 pm

Washington and Wall Street are just robbing Peter to pay Paul - front-loading sales to paint a false picture of economic health.

The grand “carnivale” continues unabated.

I suppose it begins with Sukhot, really, the biblical “Feast of Ingathering.” Then there is that celebration of grain libations, Oktoberfest, and the great candy shakedown, Halloween.

Now we’ve made it through one of the really big stations of this half-ecumenical, half-epicurean tour: Thanksgiving. All we have … [visit site to read more]



Money Versus Credit
November 30, 2009 at 8:01 pm

I just want to make a simple, but important, point about money and credit that is being overlooked by just about everybody except David Malpass. That’s true of a lot of things, by they way.

When a commercial bank makes loans or purchases government securities, both sides of its balance sheet are affected. On the asset side, either loans or investments rise. We usually call that combination “credit.” At the same time, on the liability side of the balance sheet, deposits rise by an equal … [visit site to read more]



Video: Crude Prices Rise On Weaker Dollar
November 30, 2009 at 7:56 pm

A new week has seen a rise in crude prices on easing concerns over Dubai’s debt and a weaker US dollar. … [visit site to read more]



The Derivatives Monster - Global Authorities Claim They Want To Tame It, But It's Not True
November 30, 2009 at 7:05 pm

Fed Chairman Bernanke says he wants to avoid the possible risk of a future speculative bubble. US Treasury Secretary Geithner says he wants to reform financial regulation to avoid a future debt disaster. But even while they give lip service to protecting you, they stand by passively as derivatives grow explosively. … [visit site to read more]



Six Ways To Get A Higher Selling Price For Your Home - Even In A Down Market
November 30, 2009 at 7:01 pm

It’s no secret that the old real estate adage tells us that only three things determine the value of your home - location, location, location.

But the reality is that there’s plenty you can do with most any piece of property to get a higher selling price in almost any market. Some of the steps you can take are largely cosmetic - and are aimed at improving the “curb appeal” of the property. Others involve extensive reconfigurations, making them costly.

Despite the big differences in … [visit site to read more]



Video: Market Movers: AIG, X, AMR, BA, UTX
November 30, 2009 at 6:21 pm

The latest news and information on U.S. stocks that are moving the market. … [visit site to read more]



Video: Dollar Weakens On Rise In Risk Appetite
November 30, 2009 at 6:05 pm

The US dollar fell for the first time in three sessions after Dubai debt concerns eased and paved the way for investors to favor higher-yielding assets to start off the week. … [visit site to read more]



Cartoon: Jobless, National Debt, Obesity …
November 30, 2009 at 6:01 pm

Source: John Darkow, Comics.com, November 25, … [visit site to read more]



New Leveraged ETNs Offer Innovation
November 30, 2009 at 5:01 pm

Barclay’s has a new lineup of leveraged and inverse exchange traded notes (ETNs) that are being called “potentially the most complex exchange traded product ever devised.”

According to David Nadiq at Index Universe, the notes - two long and three short - will offer investors exposure to leveraged returns linked to the performance, or inverse performance, of the S&P 500 Total Return Index.  Nadiq notes that these new ETNs are much different that current leveraged and inverse … [visit site to read more]



Remember Obama, It's All About Jobs
November 30, 2009 at 4:11 pm

“Kiss me!!”

“What?”

That’s right, I said, “Kiss me!!”

Many a businessman is familiar with the basic principle of “kiss me,” that is “Keep It Simple, Stupid.”

Regrettably, Washington is not familiar with that simplest of business principles. Legislative bills that run into the thousands of pages and admittedly go unread by our lawmakers prior to vote are often an unmitigated disaster for American business.  How so?

These bills create an environment of uncertainty. What do … [visit site to read more]



Washington Post Slashes Costs
November 30, 2009 at 4:01 pm

The Washington Post Company (WPO), a diversified education and media company, recently announced that it would close its bureau offices in New York , Los Angeles and Chicago effective Dec 31, 2009, in an effort to cut costs and focus more on local news.

Consequently, three news aides will lose their jobs, but six affected reporters in those bureaus have been offered jobs in Washington.

The newspaper industry has been reeling under the economic crisis. Publishing companies have … [visit site to read more]



US Job Market Preview: The Worst Should Be Over But Recovery Remains Fragile
November 30, 2009 at 3:01 pm

Following the fiscal and monetary stimulus that pulled the U.S. economy out of recession in the third quarter (but the growth rate, +2.8%, was lower than the previous estimate of +3.5%), economists now almost unanimously agree that the labour market upturn will be key to ensuring a continuation of the ongoing recovery into the months ahead. This is in tune with the Fed’s thinking, as indicated in the minutes of the November 3-4 FOMC meeting. Indeed, only better employment conditions will … [visit site to read more]



Iran's Nuclear Ambitions Highlight Kazakhstan's Uranium Potential
November 30, 2009 at 2:45 pm

One bonus of the global recession is that it wiped a lot of incompetent hedge fund managers and energy speculators from the canyons of Wall Street. As the Gordon Gecko sycophants regroup and look for the next Big Thing, maximizing profit while minimizing risk, the landscape looks very different than it did a year ago. In such a climate, it is uranium, not oil and natural gas that would seem to have the brightest future for one simple, overriding capitalist principle - supply and … [visit site to read more]



Markets Tizzy Over Dubai, Lack Of Shopping
November 30, 2009 at 2:41 pm

I hope you all had a great weekend. Well, the markets are in a tizzy over Dubai and shopping (or the lack thereof). I would not say that Dubai is the other shoe that the bears were waiting to drop. However, it has heightened the fear that if another country, for example Greece/Turkey, comes under financial duress that this could go from an isolated incident to a contagion, side swiping the recovery here and around the world. As we highlighted last week, look at you holdings and manage the … [visit site to read more]



USD/CAD - Bearish Potential Within Downtrend
November 30, 2009 at 2:05 pm

Price action on USD/CAD, a daily chart of which is shown, has continued its bearish path within the context of the clear downtrend that has prevailed in this currency pair since the fourth top around 1.3000 was hit in March. Within this overall downtrend, price has formed a short-term downtrend resistance line extending from the second test of the 1.1100 region back in early September. Price just reached and was rejected at this downtrend line last Friday with a pin bar / shooting … [visit site to read more]



Las Vegas Sands Raises $5 Billion
November 30, 2009 at 2:01 pm

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) has raised about $5 billion of capital through debt and equity financing to restart its Macau casino expansion projects that it had been compelled to close down last year due to financial constraints.

Las Vegas Sands’ Macau unit, Sands China Ltd. was listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange after the completion of an initial public offering (IPO) early Monday. The company raised $3.1 billion from this offering. This included $2.5 billion from listing and $600 … [visit site to read more]



Hedge Funds Still Represent The Risk Trade
November 30, 2009 at 1:17 pm

Does the pattern of this chart look familiar? It’s the performance of the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index, but it could just as well have been the stock market.

This is the two-year anniversary of this blog. My first post was entitled what exactly are hedge funds hedging? I showed that there was a high level of correlation of hedge fund returns to equities and that pattern hasn’t changed.

Hedge fund bounce-back a facade
Despite the recovery in performance, not all is well in hedge … [visit site to read more]



Will Government Debt Be The Next Crisis To Strike?
November 30, 2009 at 12:31 pm

While American investors were busy enjoying their Thanksgiving dinners, global markets were shaken by word that Dubai asked for a payment holiday on the $59 billion it owes via its investment vehicle, Dubai World. The move, which comes as oversized bets on Persian Gulf real estate sour, was considered a default by the major rating agencies.

Last week’s “standstill” request puts at risk up to $80 billion in debt linked to the emirate. While this is small in the context of the $3 trillion … [visit site to read more]



The Fallout From The Dubai Sandstorm Still Lingers
November 30, 2009 at 11:44 am

Risk market started the week on a brighter note in Asia overnight with major Asian equities making solid gains of 2-3% as the panic over Dubai debt problem abated with the help of the statement by UAE Central Bank over the weekend, where the bank pledged to offer additional liquidity support to banks in the emirates. But just when the dust or indeed the sand looked like it starting to settle the European markets took a second look at what had been offered and were more sceptical. The UAE … [visit site to read more]



UAE Central Banks Offer Local Respite - Japanese Yen Up
November 30, 2009 at 11:26 am

Caution remains the catchword as traders resume business after a holiday weekend in the U.S. The dollar has opened lower after the central bank of the United Arab Emirates said it would stand behind local lenders and that of Abu Dhabi said it would provide liquidity to borrowers using a special lending facility. Such swift actions may take much of the sting out of the possible debt default from Dubai World on some of its $59 billion in loans. The strength of the Japanese yen serves to remind us … [visit site to read more]



Options Morning Movers: Sun Microsystems, UAL Corp
November 30, 2009 at 11:24 am

JAVA - Sun Microsystems, Inc. - Large chunks of put options traded on JAVA this morning amid a slight 0.25% increase in shares to $8.55. It appears some 20,000 puts were sold at the December 8.0 strike for about 10 cents each, while 50,000 puts were likely purchased at the lower December 7.0 strike for 6 pennies apiece. Perhaps the put activity represents a large volume ratio credit spread. Stay tuned for more information…

UAUA - UAL Corp. - It looks like bullish investors are purchasing … [visit site to read more]



Australian Dollar: Caution
November 30, 2009 at 11:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



Canadian Dollar: Caution
November 30, 2009 at 11:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



UK Money Printing Isn't Working
November 30, 2009 at 11:04 am

This is the latest analysis from the Bank of England, the money supply M4 measure fell 0.7% in October, month on month. This means that there is less money in the economy than before.

As such it does not bode very well for future growth, whatever the politicians may be saying.

Also it shows that either quantitative easing is not working at all or not working yet. Either way that makes it a dangerous policy as it is potenitally increasing our debts for no reason or is storing up for a … [visit site to read more]



US Dollar: Expect A Period Of Consolidation Before A Confirmation Of Prior Break Outs
November 30, 2009 at 10:48 am

Despite the 6% slump in Dubai equity indices in early trading, global markets have shrugged off concerns surrounding the debt crisis with remarkable ease, and risk appetite has begun the week on a strong footing with most Asian equity indices strongly higher. The remedy for the most recent bout of risk aversion has been an announcement from the UAE central bank asserting they would stand behind local and foreign banks operating in the region, to ensure ample liquidity is available. It was never … [visit site to read more]



Video: NYSE Opening Bell Market Monitor: DE, UNH, AIG
November 30, 2009 at 10:44 am

The latest in news, commentary, and information on what’s moving the US equities markets. … [visit site to read more]



Stock Market News: IBM May Announce Purchase Of Database Security Start-Up Guardian; Goldman Sachs Places "Buy" Rating On US Steel
November 30, 2009 at 10:41 am

An Israeli financial newspaper reported IBM (IBM) may announce the purchase of database security start-up Guardian for $225 million
Goldman Sachs (GS) upgraded steel companies, and placed a “buy” rating on US Steel (X) with a price target of $54
Deere (DE) was upgraded by both Wells Fargo (WFC) and JP Morgan (JPM)
Bernstein downgraded Chinese Internet firm Baidu (BIDU)
FBR upgraded HSBC (HBC) to “outperform”
Piper Jaffray (PJC) reiterated its “overweight” … [visit site to read more]



Stocks To Watch On Monday
November 30, 2009 at 10:35 am

Speculative plays

GENZ - Genzyme stock upgraded to Buy. By Citigroup
ANF - Abercrombie stock upgraded to Outperform. By FBR Capital
USB - US Bancorp stock upgraded to Outperform. By Robert W. Baird
EDR - Education Realty stock upgraded to Outperform. By Robert W. Baird
CRIS - Curis appears to be holding the previous resistance now support nicely.
CTIC - Cell Therapeutics, Inc. - Watching for a close above $1.126.
RMBS - Rambus can pop big time on any positive news.
LVLT - Level … [visit site to read more]



Swiss Franc: The Downside Prevails
November 30, 2009 at 10:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



Japanese Yen: Under Pressure
November 30, 2009 at 10:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



British Pound: The Downside Prevails
November 30, 2009 at 10:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



Euro: Under Pressure
November 30, 2009 at 10:10 am

Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]



ETFs With Exposure To The United Arab Emirates (UAE)
November 30, 2009 at 10:01 am

With all the hoopla over the Dubai debt situation, I am surprised that there has been so little talk about Middle Eastern ETFs in general and ETFs with exposure to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in particular. Part of the reason for the lack of mention is surely that there is little to choose from; the other problem is a lack of liquidity and investor interest to date. Only two ETFs with strong Middle Eastern exposure warrant mentioning: the Market Vectors Gulf States ETF (MES); and the … [visit site to read more]



Video: Asian Markets Rise On Commodity Rebound
November 30, 2009 at 9:54 am

The major Asian/Pacific markets started a new week on the upside following a rise in commodity prices. … [visit site to read more]



US Unemployment Starting To Show Signs Of Stabilization
November 30, 2009 at 9:01 am

Is the dark cloud of joblessness finally starting to dissipate?

Key indicators suggest it is, and while this will be a slow-moving dissipation, top economists as well as the U.S. Federal Reserve now say the picture for the coming months looks a little less bleak.

Unemployment, considered to be one of the darkest spots of a recovery that has seen vast improvements in stock markets and marginal gains in housing and auto sales, is finally starting show signs of stabilization and in … [visit site to read more]



Option Strategy: The Calendar Spread
November 30, 2009 at 8:01 am

Last time we spoke I introduced you to volatility. Now after a break for the holidays, I’m going to teach you how to take advantage of it! Today, we’re going to talk about a new option strategy that takes advantage of both rising volatility and time decay, called the calendar spread.

Just a Matter of Time…

So what is the calendar spread? And why is it a useful option strategy to know about? The calendar spread is an interesting strategy. In many ways it’s a mix of writing a … [visit site to read more]



The Dow, Gold & US Dollar - What Goes Down Must Come Up
November 30, 2009 at 7:01 am

This year has been a very exiting time for traders and investors. We have seen a steady climb in prices with controlled pullbacks in the broad market and gold.

Using technical analysis we are able to quickly and accurately make informed decisions just from looking at the charts. In the charts below you will see how simple chart patterns along with support & resistance levels can provide excellent low risk entry points. Also you will see how candle stick charts can be an early … [visit site to read more]



Weighing The Dollar Alternatives: Part II
November 30, 2009 at 6:01 am

In last week’s Money and Markets column, I analyzed the three major liquid currencies as prospective alternatives to the U.S. dollar: The Japanese yen, the British pound and the euro. Fundamentally, they all fell short.

As I explained then, these three don’t offer any appeal over the dollar. That’s because the currency market is a beauty contest where the least ugly wins. And not only is the dollar the least ugly, but it offers refuge when fear and uncertainty grip the markets.

So … [visit site to read more]



Interesting Articles To Read
November 30, 2009 at 5:33 am

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

Paul Lim (The New York Times): A rally that needs more “E”, November 28, 2009.

IN the first leg of a bull market, when optimism and euphoria are ascendant, investors are willing to bet that the economy will improve and that corporate profit growth is just around the corner. This faith manifests itself not just in rising share prices, but also in rising … [visit site to read more]



Consumers Cherry Pick Black Friday Sales
November 30, 2009 at 5:01 am

The good news, according to the National Retail Federation, is that 195 million U.S. shoppers visited stores and websites this past weekend, an impressive 13% jump over last year.

The bad news: average spending fell nearly 8% to $343.31 per person, the lowest level in four years, while overall sales were up only 0.5% versus last year’s total.

In sum, it looks like a lot more people came out to cherry pick the biggest bargains - but not much else. That doesn’t seem to be a … [visit site to read more]



India Stock Market: Sensex Up 294.21 Points On Monday
November 30, 2009 at 4:48 am

Sensex (^BSESN) rose 294.21 points or 1.3% to 16926.35
Nifty (^NSEI) rose 90.95 points or 1.3% to 5032.70
Mid Cap rose 1.6%. Small Cap rose 2.1%.
BSE 500 was up 1.8%. Sensex gainers: 26

All 13 BSE Sectoral indices posted gains.
Advancers: 2052, Decliners: 711, Unchanged: 68
Advance/Decline Ratio: 3:1

Sensex Day’s Range: 17026.91 - 16655.75
Nifty Day’s Range: 5066.35 - 4942.25
52-Week Range: 17493.17- 8047.17
52-Week change (%): -3.2%

Sensex bounced back Monday after some … [visit site to read more]



EUR/GBP Approaches Friday's High
November 30, 2009 at 4:23 am

Eur/Gbp has been on a steady incline and is approaching Friday’s high of .9132. From an hourly perspective the 38.2% Fibo (.9072) should be a level of support if the pair pulls back at all. A break above could see Eur/Gbp ascend to the .9155-60 area.

From a daily point of view, if the pair can break and hold above .9122, which is the 50% Fibo of move down from early October high of .9410, .9190 would be next target on upside. A failed break should bring the pair back down to the … [visit site to read more]



Monday's Forex Outlook
November 30, 2009 at 4:15 am

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar lowered versus most majors on Friday as Dubai debt concerns were reduced due to UAE’s pledge to back foreign and domestic banks in Dubai. NASDAQ and Dow Jones dropped by -1.73% and -1.48% after being closed on Thursday due to Thanksgiving. Crude fell by -2.45% closing at 76.05$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) fell for the first time in 9 days with -1.08% change closing at 1174.2$ an ounce. Today, Chicago PMI is expected weaker with 53.1 versus 54.2 prior.

EURO … [visit site to read more]



The Declining Moving Averages Of Market Internals
November 30, 2009 at 4:01 am

I wanted to share a special chart I created for this week’s Weekly Intermarket Report which takes a moving average of two different measures of Market Internals which shows a specific non-confirmation of recent highs.  Let’s take a look at these averages on the daily chart of the S&P 500 spanning back to the March lows.

What we are looking at is a 20 period moving average (High + Low + Close / 3) of “Breadth” (NYSE Advancers minus decliners) for the first line and UpVolume … [visit site to read more]



India Stock Market: Tata Motors Up On Better Outlook
November 30, 2009 at 3:34 am

The benchmark Indian indices continued their upward march during the previous two hours of trade. Currently, stocks across sectors are finding favour. While stocks from the metal, realty and auto spaces are amongst the top gainers, those from the FMCG and pharmaceuticals space are lagging behind. The overall advance to decline ratio is currently poised at 3.4 to 1 on the BSE.

The BSE-Sensex (^BSESN) is trading firm, up by around 300 points or 1.8%, while the NSE-Nifty (^NSEI) is up … [visit site to read more]



Economic, News And US Earnings Reports For The Week Of Nov 30 To Dec 4
November 30, 2009 at 3:27 am

This week is going to be a busy week for economic data but so much for earnings reports. With the Thanksgiving holiday past, volume in various markets are likely going to pick up until we are close to the Christmas holiday. The wild card is the Dubai debt crisis. However, with 2009 soon behind us, anything that is going to unfold is probably going to happen early next year and throughout 2010.

Important economic items include:

- Chicago PMI, ISM Index on the manufacturing side

- … [visit site to read more]


 

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