Monday 7 December 2009

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U.S. Dollar Trade Update 12-06-2009
December 6, 2009 at 7:11 pm

Following up on a post from mid-week, here’s a U.S. Dollar Trade update for 12-06-2009.

The previous post was here: U.S. Dollar Trade Update 12-02-2009, and worked out to be perfectly timed.

The last post showed how prices have been reacting and moving lower as well as the addition of support levels which I added to the charts.

The first chart below is a current chart of the U.S. Dollar Index over a 3 month period displaying daily price candles. You can see the index made a large move higher just through the 50 day moving average line.

U.S. Dollar Update 12-06-2009

This was the biggest one day range in several months. With so many traders short the U.S. Dollar, and continued move higher will likely cause a panic of shorts covering their positions. This should cause additional big range days ahead if the rally continues.

After the big range day Friday, a pullback should be expected of some sort. While it’s not necessary for the rally to continue, having a pullback would be normal and not at all change the fact that a longer term trend change may have begun.

The next chart is of UUP, the U.S. Dollar Bull ETF I displayed on the last update. I displayed this for any stock traders out there who wanted to trade something in correlation with a move in the U.S. Dollar, but in their stock trading account.

UUP Update 12-06-2009

You can see here the nice move higher since my last update as well. About a 1-1/2% move in 2 days without any draw down so far. Prices here are also at the 50 Day Moving Average line which may cause a brief pullback before attempting another move higher.

In case a bottom is not in, a potential area for a stop loss would be just below the previous low set a few days ago. If that low is breached, the potential odds for another leg down would increase. Make sure you use some type of stop loss with your trading plan.

The big winner since the last update was the contrarian play against Gold. I had a chart displaying a potential trade using DZZ which worked out great. It moved up between 10% and 15% in the same 2 short days. I’ll be adding that continued chart here shortly (It’s time for dinner).

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