| Cartoon: Great Wallet of China
November 19, 2009 at 11:20 pm
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| The Great Wall was built between the 5th and 16th century BC to protect China from attacks along the northern borders of its empire. Now China’s wallet is performing a similar role in economic policy. Few tools help keep a slumping superpower and its sometimes needy requests at bay better than control over the purse … [visit site to read more] 
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| Rydex Market Timers: At It Again
November 19, 2009 at 11:01 pm
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| The Rydex market timers are buying the dip to an extreme degree. Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P 500 (^GSPC) with the amount of assets in the Rydex Money Market Fund in the lower panel.
Figure 1. S&P500 v. Rydex Money Market/ daily Figure 2 is a daily chart of the S&P500 with the amount of assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds versus the amount of assets in the leveraged and bearish funds.
Figure 2. Rydex Bullish and Leveraged v. Bearish and … [visit site to read more] 
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| Financial Crisis Brings Big Pain At Small Firms
November 19, 2009 at 10:01 pm
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| If policymakers were thinking ethically, rationally, and clearly — a big “if” considering their role in creating the mess we are in — you would expect that the public funds (and borrowed money) they are throwing around in the name of “rescuing” the economy would be targeted at those areas which presumably offer the biggest bang for the buck (leaving aside, of course, the question of whether the government should be spending taxpayers’ money like water in the first place).
In other … [visit site to read more] 
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| Is An Asset Bubble Forming In Hong Kong's ETF?
November 19, 2009 at 9:01 pm
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| After a slew of measures and policies that pumped world economies full of money, a lot of cash found its way into Asia, and Hong Kong is not pleased. Officials feel that Hong Kong’s economy and related exchange traded fund (ETF) have become artificially distended by international investors. Norman Chan, monetary authority chief executive in Hong Kong, has suggested that low interest rates and quantitative easing of U.S. monetary policy has allowed people to borrow at low cost and … [visit site to read more] 
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| No Inflation? Students In University Of California Will Disagree
November 19, 2009 at 8:31 pm
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| Of course, any one data point is irrelevant, and saying that California has the finances of a third-world country is insulting to many third-world countries. Still, a 32% hike in tuition? Consumer inflation is supposedly nil yet tuition is going up by 32%? I hope those kids don’t need to eat or drive to class. From the San Francisco Chronicle:
The UC regents are expected to put the final seal today on a hefty 32 percent tuition increase as students resume the protests that shut down … [visit site to read more] 
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| Tufts Endowment And Risk Taking?
November 19, 2009 at 8:01 pm
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| I was reading the article about Tufts endowment and all the money that Northeast Universities have lost as a result of the financial meltdown. The President of Tufts , proudly proclaims that we need to take less risk…. What does this mean ? What a stupid statement. They turn billions of dollars over to the money managers and hedge funds. They know nothing about risk. Tufts has no clue what the hedge funds are doing with their money. They might as well just dump it … [visit site to read more] 
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| Not Yet Out Of The Woods: US Mortgage Delinquencies Now At Record High
November 19, 2009 at 7:25 pm
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| The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported today that mortgage delinquencies hit a record high in the third quarter:
“The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties rose to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.64 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the third quarter of 2009, up 40 basis points from the second quarter of 2009, and up 265 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National … [visit site to read more] 
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| Commodity Investing: ETFs Or Mutual Funds?
November 19, 2009 at 7:11 pm
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| The exchange traded fund (ETF) world and the mutual fund industry are competing for investors left and right, and the commodity sector is no exception. The choice for exposure is now readily available in both forms. But which is superior? One of the questions it comes down to is whether you prefer active or passive management. The differences between mutual funds and ETFs still exist when considering funds that cover the commodities space. Overall, passive ETFs cost less than active … [visit site to read more]
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| U.S. Share Of World GDP Remarkably Constant
November 19, 2009 at 7:05 pm
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| Somewhat surprisingly, the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture has some great international historical macroeconomic datasets. According to its website:
The International Macroeconomic Data Set provides data from 1969 through 2020 for real (adjusted for inflation) gross domestic product (GDP), population, real exchange rates, and other variables for the 190 countries and 34 regions that are most important for U.S. agricultural trade.
The chart above shows … [visit site to read more] 
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| New Technology Turns Coal Into Clean, High-Powered Gas
November 19, 2009 at 7:01 pm
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| A new fuel technology - unveiled just two weeks ago - is about to revolutionize the energy business.
I saw it firsthand. General Electric Co. (GE) asked me to present “The Future of Natural Gas” at the company’s Gas Turbine Symposium in Greenville, S.C. That’s where GE revealed a new generation of its market-leading turbine technology. Most of GE’s major North American power-production end users attended the event. And the proceedings were simulcast to GE research centers in … [visit site to read more] 
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| Stock Picks For Friday: Dell, Energy Conversion Devices And Suntech Power Holdings
November 19, 2009 at 6:55 pm
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| ( click to enlarge ) Suntech Power Holdings (STP) was one of the big winners on Thursday, as the stock traded up on their earnings. The technical indicators are looking better now for the stock. STP has broken the upper channel line of this short term downtrend line and is now very bullish with the breakout having a large spread and volume. Looking at the daily technical chart the stock has just entered into a bull market as the stock is on top of 50 day and 200 day moving average. … [visit site to read more] 
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| Although President Obama Warns Of A "Double-Dip" Recession, We Expect U.S. Recovery To Continue
November 19, 2009 at 6:01 pm
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| In a warning that focuses on the need to contain the soaring federal deficit, U.S. President Barack Obama yesterday (Wednesday) said that a continued accumulation of government debt could be enough to blunt the recovery and then drop the U.S. economy into a “double-dip” recession. It was President Obama’s most-severe warning yet about the dangers of growing budget deficits at a time when the U.S. unemployment rate is at 10.2% and climbing. The comments were made to Fox News during an … [visit site to read more] 
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| Regional Bank ETFs: The Bad And The Good
November 19, 2009 at 5:01 pm
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| The financial fiasco is still too clear in our memories and some of the inimical legacies are spilling over into the regional banking industry. But, regional banks, along with related exchange traded funds (ETFs), may get a helping hand from the government. Let’s start with the bad news. Commercial real estate loan failures in the mid-sized regional banking industry have become a thorn in the economy’s foot, writes Andrew Smith for Newsday. According to a Wall Street rating agency’s … [visit site to read more] 
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| Options Update On CVS, Mastercard, Visa, Regions Financial, NetApp
November 19, 2009 at 4:57 pm
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| (CVS) - CVS Caremark Corp. - Shares of the pharmacy retail chain are up 1.5% to $31.11 perhaps due, in part, to the 'buy’ rating it received at UBS today. Optimistic options activity took place in the December contract as one investor initiated a bullish risk reversal. It appears the trader sold 4,400 puts at the December 31 strike for an average premium of 94 cents apiece in order to finance the purchase of the same number of calls at the higher December 32 strike for 63 cents each. … [visit site to read more] 
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| Video: NYC Communication Jobs Continue To Be A Hard Find
November 19, 2009 at 4:42 pm
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| According to the city comptroller office, New York City continues to see communications jobs disappear, particularly in the fields of publishing and broadcasting. … [visit site to read more] 
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| John Paulson Launching A Gold Fund With $250M Of His Own Money
November 19, 2009 at 4:38 pm
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| Paulson is launching a new pure-play gold-focused hedge fund with $250 million of his $6 billion personal fortune. The current president of Paulson & Co is already famous for earning $3.7 billion on the subprime meltdown. Some question his timing, and why he’d begin a fund right now given that the precious metal is at all time highs well over $1,100. He, however, must be confident given that his own money is at stake on this new yellow wager. Paulson has a consistent record of … [visit site to read more] 
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| Video: Oil Prices Slide On Strong Dollar
November 19, 2009 at 4:36 pm
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| Front month crude prices dropped this session following a stronger US dollar and a drop in US equities … [visit site to read more] 
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| Petrobras Profit Exceeds Estimates
November 19, 2009 at 4:35 pm
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| Brazilian energy giant Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR), or Petrobras S.A. announced encouraging third quarter results, helped by strong performance from the Supply segment. Earnings per ADR came in at R$1.66 (96 cents), comfortably beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 80 cents. However, on a year-over-year basis, Petrobras’ earnings per ADR was down approximately 28.7%, hurt by lower prices of oil and natural gas. Still, they were better than the high double-digit earnings decline … [visit site to read more] 
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| Tim Geithner And Congress Take The Gloves Off
November 19, 2009 at 4:20 pm
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| Do you get the sense that Americans are increasingly fed up with the incestuous nature of the Wall Street-Washington relationship? How so? The gloves came off from both sides of the aisle today in the midst of Congressional testimony from Treasury Secretary Geithner to the Joint Economic Committee. Despite what you may think about the policy and programs of the Obama administration, the sentiments shared by selected Congressmen are clearly reflective of the mood in the nation … [visit site to read more] 
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| Senior Secured Floating Rate Bonds: The Best Investments To Own When Interest Rates Rise
November 19, 2009 at 4:01 pm
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| With interest rates resting at historic lows, we can all agree they will eventually rise. And when they do, you’ll want to make sure you own something called Senior Secured Floating Rate bonds. I know… these under-the-radar bonds aren’t headline makers. But please don’t let their relative obscurity - they’ve only been around since the early 1980s - convince you to overlook them. Senior Secured Floating Rate bonds (SSFR) are actually ideally suited for the current environment and … [visit site to read more] 
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| Profit From The Falling Dollar With ETFs
November 19, 2009 at 3:01 pm
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| The U.S. dollar is falling like a rock! And while we could always see a short-term rally, I’m growing more and more convinced that the dollar is heading much lower against other world currencies. Look at this chart below. In just the last eight months, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of major currencies, plunged more than 15 percent! This week it’s breaking down even further. One of the main reasons this trend is likely to … [visit site to read more] 
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| 2009 Stock Market vs. 1982 Bull Market
November 19, 2009 at 2:02 pm
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| The very useful comparison of the current US stock market rally with that of 1982 is provided in the table below, courtesy of Barry Ritholtz, writer of The Big Picture blog.
It is when looking at the characteristics of a typical market bottom that one has difficulty seeing that the March '09 lows were in fact a primary bull market turning point. “Maybe this time it really is different, I guess we’re going to find out,” said Richard Russell (Dow Theory … [visit site to read more]
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| As U.S. Refiners Recover, This Company Aims To Leap To The Next Level
November 19, 2009 at 1:16 pm
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| Even as U.S gas prices climb, petroleum traders still have no interest in buying right now. And why would they? The summer driving season is at an end. Consumers are still trying to save cash, especially with the holidays approaching. And inventories are still bearish. Last week, the Department of Energy (DOE) said gasoline demand is at 8.844 million barrels per day - the lowest number since late January 2009. And with practically no demand, refiners are still running at only 80% … [visit site to read more] 
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| Video: Market Movers: TXN, INTC, DCI, SRZ
November 19, 2009 at 1:13 pm
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| The latest news and information on U.S. stocks that are moving the market. … [visit site to read more] 
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| GAO Report Boosts Fortunes Of Credit Card Companies
November 19, 2009 at 1:09 pm
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| MA - Mastercard Inc. - A GAO report concluded that lowering processing fees charge by card payment processors charged at stores might not save consumers money, who might also end up paying more for purchases. As we stare at a sea of red on our market scanners today, options activity at two companies stands out to display healthy call activity. Meanwhile both share prices have jumped higher as investors respond to the lower likelihood of reduced profits at Mastercard, whose shares are 3% … [visit site to read more] 
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| EUR/USD Running Into Further Resistance After Breaking Above 1.4894
November 19, 2009 at 1:03 pm
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| The EURUSD pushed through the 200 bar MA and old corrective high at the 1.4894 (see prior post) and as one might expect it led to some buying interest from profit taking shorts and new longs. The price has moved up to the 1.4917 level where the 50% retracement of the move down from yesterday’s high is found. Also above is resistance off the 100 hour MA at the 1.4923 level currently. Look for sellers against these levels with support now centered on the 1.4894 … [visit site to read more] 
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| OECD More Than Doubles 2010 Forecast, As China Leads The World Out Of The Recession
November 19, 2009 at 12:24 pm
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| The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) more than doubled its 2010 forecast for developed nations, saying that strong growth in Asia - particularly China - would help pull the “more feeble” West out of its financial malaise. After predicting in June that the combined economy of its 30 member nations would grow 0.7% in 2010, the OECD raised its forecast for developed economies to grow 1.9% next year and 2.5% in 2011. Economic output will contract by 3.5% this … [visit site to read more] 
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| Carry Trade Reversals Rally The US Dollar And Yen
November 19, 2009 at 12:16 pm
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| Fear of risk rained on the currency investors’ parade as an equity market sell-off fueled a US dollar and Japanese yen (JPY) rally. At times it looks as if we will break this pattern of markets up dollar down/markets down dollar up, but it seems investors continue to return to the US dollar and Japanese yen as soon as they become worried about equity market returns. Many of the callers into the trade desk wonder how anyone would be buying the Japanese yen and US Dollar as 'safe … [visit site to read more] 
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| EUR/JPY Near Bottom Of Large Triangle
November 19, 2009 at 12:14 pm
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| Price action on EUR/JPY, a daily chart of which is shown, is displaying dramatic yen strengthening today on stock market declines that is also abundantly clear on other major yen pairs/crosses like USD/JPY and GBP/JPY. In the case of EUR/JPY, price has descended all the way down to approach a dynamically-ascending support line extending from the April low. This support line constitutes the bottom border of a large, prolonged ascending triangle pattern (horizontal top and ascending bottom). … [visit site to read more] 
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| Australian Dollar: Caution
November 19, 2009 at 12:10 pm
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| Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more] 
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| Canadian Dollar: Caution
November 19, 2009 at 12:10 pm
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| Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more] 
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| Washington Just Can't Connect The Dots
November 19, 2009 at 12:09 pm
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| Washington has sucked up every last available dollar, and then blamed the banks for not lending what they don’t have. Connecting the dots used to be considered a child’s game - far too easy for adults, who ought to enjoy more challenging pursuits like chess or poker. Apparently this is no longer the case. Several times over the past few years, we have heard folks in positions of real responsibility claim that it was “simply not possible” to connect the dots. Couldn’t connect the … [visit site to read more] 
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| Stock Market Movers: Williams-Sonoma, American Electric Power, NetApp
November 19, 2009 at 12:01 pm
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| WSM - Williams-Sonoma, Inc. - Better-than-expected third-quarter earnings for the home furnishings retailer helped WSM shares buck the downward trend felt by the overall market today. Shares are up slightly by 1% to $21.24 as of 10:10 am (EDT). Williams-Sonoma posted profits of 16 cents per share, which exceeded average analyst forecasts by a factor of three. Option implied volatility contracted 21.64% to 48.23% this morning following earnings. AEP - American Electric Power Co., Inc. - Put … [visit site to read more] 
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| Toyota Has 1st Sales Gain in 15 Months
November 19, 2009 at 12:00 pm
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| Toyota Motor (TM) has posted its first year-over-year monthly sales gain across the globe in 15 months during October. The company’s sales rose 4% to more than 630,000 vehicles. In the U.S., the company’s sales fell 3.5%. However, in the domestic market Toyota’s sales grew 15% helped by tax breaks for purchases of environment-friendly cars. In China, the company saw a staggering rise of 40% in sales. Toyota returned to profitability in the second quarter of fiscal 2010 ended Sep 30, … [visit site to read more] 
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| Stock Market Briefs: Intel, Texas Instruments Downgraded By Bank Of America, AMD Surges On Private Debt Offering
November 19, 2009 at 11:58 am
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| Bank of America/Merrill (BAC) downgraded a number of semiconductor companies, expecting a modest inventory correction, even as economies improve and demand for electronics rises. Four shares were downgraded to neutral, including Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), Marvel Technology Group (MRVL) and LSI Corp (LSI). The form lowered Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM), National Semiconductor (NSM), Power Integrations (POWI) and Microchip Technology (MCHP) to … [visit site to read more] 
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| Good News On Southern California Home Prices
November 19, 2009 at 11:54 am
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| The October 2009 sales report for Southern California is all good news. The number of sales has now accomplished 16 straight months of year-over-year increases. The percentage of sale of foreclosure properties is dropping, allowing the median sale prices to increase. The median price per square foot has increased for 6 straight months. Of particular interest, two counties, Orange and San Diego now have year-over-year median price gains. The average price on Orange county for October … [visit site to read more] 
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| EUR/USD Maintains The Floor At 1.4843 Area And Ceiling Against 1.4894 Currently
November 19, 2009 at 11:37 am
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| The EURUSD has continued to maintain a floor against the 1.4545 area (low was 1.4543). The price has moved above the 100 bar MA on two occasions in the NY session but has not been able to pressure the 200 bar MA. The consolidation phase has focused the price action between the 1.4894 and the 1.4843 level. Use the 100 bar MA (currently at 1.4868) as the bullish/bias indicator. Price above is bullish, below bearish. Confirmation of direction comes on the breaks of the … [visit site to read more] 
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| Moody's Cuts UBS Ratings
November 19, 2009 at 11:35 am
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| Moody’s Investors Service has cut various ratings on UBS AG (UBS) pointing out the significant challenges the company continues to face in its Investment Banking and Wealth Management businesses. Moody’s has downgraded the bank financial strength rating and the long-term debt and deposit ratings of UBS AG. The bank financial strength rating was lowered two notches to C from B-, while its deposits and senior debt ratings were lowered to Aa3 from Aa2. The ratings for senior … [visit site to read more] 
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| Video: "We Still Have A Way To Go"
November 19, 2009 at 11:27 am
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| Floor trader Doreen Mogavero shares her thoughts behind today’s market plunge and explains why “we still have a while to go.” … [visit site to read more] 
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| Fed Officials See Logical US Dollar Trade Off
November 19, 2009 at 11:27 am
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| Overnight comments in Asia from two Fed officials served to expand upon Monday’s keynote speech at the Economic Club of New York in which chairman Bernanke discussed the falling dollar. Dallas Fed president, Richard Fisher noted that the value of the dollar was but one of the inputs when setting policy and that a gradual decline was not likely to lead to inflationary pressures. His fear for a sub-3% growth rate next year was compounded by a more optimistic OECD assessment for global growth, but … [visit site to read more] 
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| Wheat Playing Catch-Up As Commodities Rally
November 19, 2009 at 11:06 am
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| Fundamentals “Every dog has its day” is a fitting saying to describe the recent rally in the Soft Red Winter Wheat futures (”SRW”) traded in Chicago. March Wheat has rallied to highs not seen since July, as the continued battering of the U.S. Dollar has commodity funds in a buying mood for anything “commodity”, Wheat included. Fundamentally, the recent rally seems suspect, given ample world Wheat supplies. In addition, Wheat exports have not been stellar, despite a lower greenback. If … [visit site to read more] 
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| Leading Indicators Rise For 7th Month To 2-Yr. High
November 19, 2009 at 10:50 am
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| The Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased for the 7th straight month to 103.8, the highest level since the fall of 2007, and the first time in more than five years of 7-consecutive monthly increases (since early 2004). Details: Six of the ten indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in October. The positive contributors - beginning with the largest positive contributor - were the interest rate spread, average weekly initial claims for unemployment … [visit site to read more] 
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| Jobless Claims (Four-Wk. Avg.) Drop For 11th Straight Week To 514,000, Lowest Level In A Year
November 19, 2009 at 10:48 am
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| Weekly jobless claims fell for the 11th straight week to 514,000 (four-week moving average), reaching the lowest level in a year (since November 15, 2008), according to today’s report from the Department of Labor (see chart … [visit site to read more] 
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| Stocks To Watch On Thursday
November 19, 2009 at 10:44 am
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| Speculative players OCR - Omnicare stock upgraded to Neutral. By UBS
SXCI - SXC Health Solutions stock upgraded to Neutral. By UBS
ESRX - Express Scripts upgraded to Buy. By UBS
CVS - CVS Caremark upgraded to Buy. By UBS
MCK - McKesson upgraded to Buy. By UBS
SOLF - Solarfun Power upgraded to Outperform. By Oppenheimer
C - The stock broke a key resistance level at 4.28 on a volume expansion
DRYS - The stock broke a key resistance level at 7.10 on a volume expansion
S - The … [visit site to read more] 
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| Video: NYSE Opening Bell Market Monitor: SHLD, WSM, HOTT
November 19, 2009 at 10:41 am
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| The latest in news, commentary, and information on what’s moving the US equities markets. … [visit site to read more] 
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| US Initial Jobless Claims Flat(-ish)
November 19, 2009 at 10:38 am
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| This week, initial claims for unemployment insurance (or jobless claims) were 505,000, the same as last week’s revised figure. However, the initial read was 502,000, so it is just as valid to see this as a 3,000 increase. That, however, is not much in the overall scale of things. The four-week average fell by 6,500 to 514,000, and is now almost 145,000 below its mid-April peak. The graph below (from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/) shows the very significant progress that has … [visit site to read more] 
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