Friday 20 November 2009

11/21 The Wikinvest Daily Angle

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How Far Can Dollar Rise on Bernanke Comments?
November 20, 2009 at 2:01 am

Today's Daily Angle comes from Wikinvest Wire member Kathy Lien of KathyLien.com and FX360.com. You can read the full article on her blog.

Bernanke's support for the U.S. dollar and Federal Reserve President Lacker's comment this week that the central bank is paying close attention to the value of the greenback has driven the buck higher against all major currencies. The last time Bernanke surprised the market with a comment on currencies was back in June. According to the following chart, the EUR/USD fell 4 percent in the 2 weeks following Bernanke's comment. However after a month of consolidation, the uptrend resumed. I am a long term USD bear (see my artice Why The Dollar Could Fall Another 5-7 Percent) but as a trader first and analyst second, I know that uptrends do move in straight lines. Shaking out the shorts are needed to get some fresh blood into the markets. Interestingly enough, a 4 percent drop in the EUR/USD would take the currency to 1.44, the former breakout zone. I think any drop will be limited to 1.4650-1.47.

Technical chart of the EUR/USD with Bernanke's comments highlighted

Technical chart of the EUR/USD with Bernanke’s comments highlighted

Take a look at the chart and make your own judgement.

 

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